http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/305/41567_Malawi.jpgAkwete Sande gives an overview of the current political situation in historical context in Malawi in the lead up to the 2009 elections.

Bakili Muluzi was a powerful politician under dictator Hastings Banda, first President of Malawi 1964-1994. As Secretary General of Malawi Congress Party at a younger age, Muluzi was dictator number two to Banda. But like all others before him, he served for a short period and was removed.

Bakili Muluzi went into business, but he resurfaced to lead the United Democratic Front – UDF in 1992 as a pressure group to agitate for political pluralism.

Muluzi, an accomplished orator backed by the faith community alongside the late Chakufwa Chihana, a trade unionist, galvanised Malawians against the one-party state. Through a referendum in 1993, Malawi adopted multi-party democracy.

In 1994 Bakili Muluzi, a Muslim in a Christian dominated country defeated Banda at the polls and began a reform process that included entrenching judicial independence, and freedoms such as press and association.

He closed notorious detention camps where Banda had kept his foes. The country saw the flourishing of non-governmental organisations in restricted areas of human rights. Independent print and electronic media houses included a state television station emerged.

A new constitution that provided for an Ombudsman’s office, an anti-corruptions bureau was adopted. New policies on gender issues, youth development and the largely successful Malawi Social Action Fund (MASAF) were initiated.

Muluzi’s rallying call was poverty reduction. By the end of his first five year term in 1999, despite success on human rights, free basic education which he had successfully introduced, poverty had got worse in a country with only tobacco as a major export.

It was not an easy win for Muluzi in 1999. The UDF, which had attracted all sorts of characters, lost popularity as people moved to other parties. Come elections in May 1999, Muluzi could only manage a bare win.

The second and last constitutional term for Muluzi was a troubled one. Successive droughts left the majority of people starving from 2002–2004. Newspapers were a wash with revelations of official corruption.

The most seriously affected was the ministry of education, where dubious contractors were paid for uncompleted school blocks. The Anti-Corruption Bureau Act, was not strong enough to discipline those with connections in powerful places. The civil service lost professionalism as most senior officials owed allegiance to powerful politicians.

However, the UDF had no clear succession plans because Muluzi himself harboured desire to extend his stay at state house. A slow but steady campaign for constitutional amendments for 'Open Term' and 'Third Term' to do away with two consecutive terms was waged. But parliament rejected the amendments. This campaign alienated Muluzi from most of his senior colleagues, who opted out of the party and government. Here perhaps is the genesis of his desire for return from retirement to contest again.

Muluzi anointed Bingu Wa-Mutharika, the current president and former international servant of the World Bank and COMESA as his successor. He successfully campaigned for Bingu, propping him as an economic 'engineer'. Although Bingu carried the day, it was with a very narrow margin sparking allegations of electoral fraud.

However after a few months the new president complained that the former president wanted to control him. Bingu shunned party functions leading to his being sidelined by party officials, and finally he bowed out.

It had never happened that a president could abandon a party that put him in power, elsewhere perhaps, but certainly not in this part of Africa.

However civil society and the public welcomed the move when he formed his own Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Many people flocked to it and within a short period DPP won six seats in by-elections therefore becoming a ruling party by default. Bingu’s stance on corruption, arresting his former party members and convicting others in the process has further created enemies for the president.

An attempt to impeach Bingu failed due to some gaps in the constitution, which provides for that possibility. But parliament had no procedures to set the impeachment in motion. Bingu was followed by many UDF legislators reducing the former ruling party into as a second rate opposition in parliament.

However vice president Cassim Chilumpha stuck in the UD. On several occasions, he became critical of the government. President Muntharika made an attempt to sack him but the courts restricted him. However, last year the vice president was arrested on treason charges, which he is answering while under house arrest.

The departure of Mutharika from UDF sparked bitter rivalry with Muluzi. Though several attempts have been made by a public watchdog – Public Affairs Committee – PAC, it has failed to reconcile the two. Each side accused the other of sparking political tension, and the race to 2009 elections has been unofficially begun.

What began as mere speculations that the former president intended a come back is now real.

'My job when I left office was to rebuild my party. But a lot of attempts have been made by Bingu to destroy UDF, this has forced me to decide to comeback. If UDF nominates me a candidate, I will contest in 2009', Muluzi told his supporters last month.

The announcement received mixed reactions with government spokesperson Patricia Kaliati declaring that government may reconsider Muluzi’s benefits as a retired president. These include security detail, house, medical and other benefits.

President Mutharika declared that he was at war with the opposition and true to his words made unprecedented moves by deploying the Malawi Defence Force to stop a rally from being addressed by former the president in Mulanje, a place seen as Mutharika’s stronghold and where the majority of his ethnic kinsmen come from.

The vocal civil society condemned the use of the armed forces. But they were not backing the proposed comeback by former President. Some chiefs have formed a coalition to lobby fellow chiefs to deny support to the former president. Prominent journalist – Gedeon Munthali and Chinyeke Tembo have formed a coalition too – Anti-Muluzi Coalition to mobilise people against Muluzi.

Columnists and radio analysts have argued that a Muluzi comeback is uncalled for and is premised on greed. They argue that the country was denied international aid from 2003 due to corruption and over-expenditure. Poverty grew worse during Muluzi’s ten year rule. They believe Muluzi who controls the finances of his party is being used by greedy fellows who want a fortune.

Perhaps such statements will do nothing to stop the populist former president from running for office again. But he has another thing coming. A constitutional reform programme which started last year entered into second phase this month and a conference to review the 1995 constitutional was recently held.

The issues to discussed included abolishing of death penalty, a recall provision for non-performing legislators, amendments on the presidency where a former president after completing five year terms should not come back, a president should have a minimum of an academic degree, are some of the hurdles Muluzi has to contend with.

However, constitutional amendments will have to go to parliament where the combined opposition is capable of upsetting the motions which people see as targeting Muluzi who has no first degree apart from professional diplomas and honorary ones. There have been calls from civil society for a referendum on the proposed changes, which may hold hope for the former president who is still popular.

'We have no trust in our MP’s, they can be forced by their leaders to sabotage the process, and render the whole exercise fruitless', says Billy Mayaya of the Blantyre Synod of the influential Presbyterian Church, explaining the reasons for the referendum.

An analyst from the University of Malawi, wiseman Chijere Chirwa says Muluzi’s comeback is a sign of a leadership crisis in a party-UDF that ruled the country from 1994–2004. He adds that the move will alienate ambitious people, who may decide to opt out.

Muluzi cites arbitrary arrests, and flouting of constitution by Mutharika as his major reasons for comeback. 'He is overlooking the successful ending of chronic farming in the return of donor support; debt relief and eradication of corruption', argues Eric Ning’ang’a, an educationist based in the city of Blantyre.

But Adamson Muula, a popular columnist and medical practiotioner says Muluzi should be allowed to stand. Muula says Muluzi’s comeback will bring challenges because people will be able to judge whether he has any better agenda.

Bakili Muluzi is determined to deflate the tube he inflated but Mutharika will not take it lying down – the use of the armed forces is just a sign of things to come as 2009 draws closer.

* Aaron Akwete Sandie is a freelance journalist based in Botswana.

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