President Zuma’s survival instincts

One of the great mysteries of South African politics is how President Jacob Zuma manages to survive career-ending crisis after career-ending crisis, each sufficient unto itself to have floored any other politician.

Yet Zuma keeps on going.

What is it about his political make-up that enables him to navigate the most treacherous of political storms?

At the end of last year there was a moment when it seemed that Zuma might fall. Indeed he came the closest he has ever to being recalled.

This was after he sacked Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene without consulting his cabinet, the ANC national executive committee or the tripartite alliance partners, and appointed ANC parliamentary backbencher Desmond “Des” van Rooyen in his place.

The rand, stocks and shares and investor confidence plummeted. Within hours Zuma was confronted by senior ANC leaders who opposed his course of action.

Close allies, however, egged him on, urging him not to compromise.

But Zuma has very pronounced political survival instincts. He instinctively knows when enough is enough. Had he insisted on retaining Van Rooyen, he knew he would face recall.

He backed down immediately and re-appointed former Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to the post.

Had it been Thabo Mbeki, the former president would likely have stubbornly persisted.

President Nelson Mandela on the other hand also had a well-tuned sense of when to back down, even if he felt strongly about an issue.

If Zuma senses he is threatened he will back off, even at the cost of public humiliation.

He has the ability to suppress his ego and will compromise to ensure his longevity.

Zuma is, indeed, a very pragmatic politician. He rarely holds onto positions, policies and decisions for the sake of principle and easily changes course midstream.

This makes him appear unprincipled, populist and lacking in any clear ideology. But Zuma operates within the clear paradigm of the ANC. He knows the inner workings, structures, forces, constituencies and different cultures of the organisation better than most and adroitly plays these to his advantage. He knows exactly who matters, who should be courted and who could be ignored in the ANC.

And in the Nene debacle he knew he had to compromise because a critical mass of influential leadership forces across the ANC family opposed his course of action.

Zuma is also adept at building inner-ANC coalitions, often consisting of constituencies that are diametrically opposed to each other – traditional leaders, communists, black professionals and black economic empowerment (BEE) tycoons.

And Zuma has excelled at using state patronage over a large front to build inner-ANC coalitions that support him.

Another of Zuma’s skills is the ability to tailor his messages to win over different audiences. His giggling and self-depreciation belies an ability to present the same issue, policy and decision to different and often opposing constituencies within the ANC, in such a way that each constituency involved believes the policy or decision favours them.

This, of course, is a very populist tactic – one which Zuma has mastered.

Zuma has a very warm, self-effacing and jovial personality. He is also humble. Because of these traits many people who meet him often easily trust him. Others, again, easily mistake his self-depreciating style, combined with his humble beginnings and bearing and his lack of formal education, for weakness. They have had their comeuppance.

The president is also brutal when he believes he needs to act against those perceived to be a threat. The lightening quick strike against former Finance Minister Nhanhla Nene is a case in point.

Zuma also does not shy away from playing the victim – especially when it is politically plausible or based on past apartheid grievances – as a strategy for ANC constituencies to support him even when he is plainly wrong.

When he was tried for alleged rape, for example, he portrayed himself as a “victim” set-up by powerful political forces. Such a narrative was convincingly plausible for many who viewed the Mbeki presidency as being brutal against perceived opponents within and outside the ANC.

Another Zuma persona is that of the “ordinary man” – one from rural stock who has managed to make it good.

But being the “ordinary man” has particular significance within the ANC which over its history was led by the black educated middle class.

While Zuma, out of all the ANC’s leaders, may perhaps best encapsulate the many strands of black South African society – the rural dweller, the traditionalist and the urbanite aspiring to a better life – he faced a particular challenge within his own organisation.

Because he completed only parts of his primary school education, he did not “fit” the profile of ANC leaders. As a result he has had to “prove himself” at every level within the ANC.

Indeed Zuma was an insider who at the same time was an outsider. But he turned this to his advantage in his political battles, becoming particularly adroit at self-identifying with the majority of the black poor who are “outside” the country’s economy and power structures.

Another of his skills came from the streets of Durban’s inner city. As a young boy and teenager he had to use his wits and cunning to survive on the rough, tough, gang-dominated and often violent streets of Durban’s inner-city.

This demanded that he develop street smarts – that he know who to appease and that he learn how to strike the right partnerships.

Of all the ANC leaders Zuma, together with the late Joe Modise, is probably the most successful with a background that includes spending their early years hustling in the city streets.

Not surprisingly this type of leader thrived in exile where checks and balances were largely absent.

Alongside their political activities they could operate large informal networks through which they were able to move things in and out South Africa. This provided access to “luxuries”, including the latest smart township clothes and accessories.

Clearly his life experiences have provided Zuma with a particular skills set. They have sharpened his ability to survive and ride out so many storms.

But, although his ability to compromise during the Finance Minister debacle showed him at his pragmatic best, it also showed him at his weakest since he assumed leadership of the ANC at the party’s 2007 Polokwane conference.

The coalitions he built have now fractured because of his many contradictions. His constituencies have realised that his personal and public behaviour are at odds with the messages he gives them.

His Polokwane coalition block – the ANC Youth League, the Congress of South African Trade Unions, the South African Communist Party, ANC Women’s League, traditional leadership and black business groups – has imploded on the back of dashed expectations.

Julius Malema has formed the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and has mobilised many young people in rural and urban areas who once supported Zuma and the ANC.

The SACP is under attack from ANC leaders and members for using communist rhetoric while enriching themselves.

The women’s league has become irrelevant and is deeply divided over who should succeed Zuma.

Meanwhile many of the black business leaders and organisations that once supported Zuma are feeling the economic pinch as their businesses shrink due to his policy decisions.

And the black middle class, struggling to keep its new-found status in a tough economic climate, is increasingly distancing itself, not only from Zuma, but also from the ANC.

Indeed the country’s continuing economic troubles may be the turning point not only for South African politics but Zuma’s career.

For the first time the economic interests of the many constituencies he has thus far adroitly stage-managed are in peril.

If the ANC loses key councils in the 2016 local government elections because of a backlash against the Zuma presidency, it will reduce the ANC’s ability to appease supporters through state patronage - jobs, tenders and contracts – so crucial to Zuma’s political survival also.

There were loud howls of outrage –not vented in public, but behind the scenes – from the ANC leadership over Zuma’s sacking of Nene.

Faced with an intensifying economic tsunami Zuma is running out of solid ground as his support base fragments. Finally all his well-developed survival instincts may not be enough.

* William Gumede is chairperson, Democracy Works Foundation. He is author of ‘Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times’, Tafelberg. A version of this article originally appeared in the Daily Dispatch, East London, South Africa.

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