http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/359/47178race.jpgBlessing-Miles Tendi argues that it is too early to rule out a Mugabe led Zimbabwe - he will find ways to remain in power.

I have been following Zimbabwe's 2008 elections closely. My emotions have mutated with alacrity, checking news sites more often than I should, and receiving calls and messages from family and political contacts in Zimbabwe. Since last week, I have gone from 'Robert Mugabe and ZANU PF will win' to 'it will be a landslide victory for the opposition' to 'Mugabe has already fled the country fearing retribution' to 'the army has ordered the electoral commission to declare Mugabe the winner' and now, my present mood and thinking is that a lot of people are going to be disappointed by the eventual outcome of the presidential poll because we are headed for a do or die run-off between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai.

The two things that stand out about Mugabe's political pattern is his consistency, and that he is too wily and resolute in power to be swept away in a pseudo democratic election. Zimbabwe is better off without him at the helm but we must temper our emotions and stop our imagination from running wild. Mugabe has been in difficult situations before and wriggled out of them amazingly. 'Jesus rose from the dead once but I have come back from the dead several times', he once boasted. The probability is high that Mugabe can come back from the dead once again. I would not bet against it. This is my position now, after what has been a rollercoster week of miraculous flip-flopping on my part.

Sovereignty is a vehicle towards the good life for the ZANU PF political elite. The font of sovereignty is the powerful executive presidency through which ZANU PF has privatised the institution of the state as a means to authoritarian rule and personal aggrandisement: 'the desire to retain sovereignty and not to surrender it or even share it is a powerful motive perpetuating the ex-colonial status quo in Sub Saharan Africa. Sovereignty gives a relatively small number of people control of state positions which confer enormous palpable advantages and privileges. Ruling elites literally live off sovereignty and most live very well indeed - as long as they live. They fight to keep it and others fight to take it away from them'.

When Mugabe and ZANU PF play up sovereignty it is in order to protect their hold on power and its benefits. Their uses of sovereignty are less about protecting the country and its inhabitants' sovereignty but more about protecting the 'enormous palpable advantages and privileges' sovereignty affords them. In Zimbabwe it is not the governed who are sovereign – it is ZANU PF that is sovereign. ZANU PF elites live off sovereignty. Thus, sovereignty is one of the themes commanding broad consensus in ZANU PF and the party will strive – at all costs - to keep its hold on sovereignty by retaining the presidency in the looming run off.

A run off between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai may suit Mugabe better than facing Simba Makoni in a runoff because if there is anything many in ZANU PF and Zimbabwe's top security officials are united on, it is that Tsvangirai must not rule. Those comprising the status quo not only stand to lose their sovereignty but also fear prosecution for crimes committed in office if Tsvangirai prevails.

ZANU PF was divided in this election but expect it to put its differences aside and to rally behind Mugabe forcefully in a run off with Tsvangirai. Mugabe risked damaging defections if he had faced Makoni in a run off. A Mugabe-Makoni run off would have presented Makoni's secret and powerful backers in ZANU PF, such as Solomon Mujuru, with the opportune moment to abandon Mugabe in favour of Makoni. Mugabe will also find it easier to marshal ZANU PF's rank and file to campaign for him against Tsvangirai as opposed to Makoni who has many sympathisers in the ruling party. Indeed some will not need to be marshaled at all for retaining the presidency means guaranteeing their life of privilege.

ZANU PF will leave no stone unturned in a Mugabe-Tsvangirai face off. ZANU PF was complacent in the rural areas and some of its rural party structures were not as formidable as they normally are. It underestimated the extent to which Tsvangirai would make significant in roads into its rural strongholds. The free political space Tsvangirai enjoyed in the rural areas during this campaign will be gone in the run off. A run off in 3 weeks, or 90 days as has been suggested, also allows ZANU PF some time to tinker its rigging machinery. The war veterans have started making threats. There is a developing discourse proclaiming the return of white farmers and how the land revolution can only be defended by re-electing Mugabe. The military looks set to be more involved than ever before in guaranteeing Mugabe's re-election. We are about to be blitzed with everything ZANU PF has left.

* Blessing-Miles Tendi is a researcher at Oxford University.

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