It was Abraham Lincoln who said, 'The possibility that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter anyone from the support of a course we all of us believe to be just.'

I write this knowing that Kenyans are up in arms to reclaim Migingo Island, but the thrust with which we are embarking on this mission puts a straight point on whether we are ready to form an East African Federation also. Might we be playing into a set-up trap to show Africans cannot be one thing, cannot unite even to salvage their own problems?

Economically, resources worldwide determine the politics. Those who know this are moving towards the formation of trading blocs with respect of member states, along of course with strong leadership. Such trade blocs are becoming large free trade zones or at least near free trade zones formed by one or more tax, tariff and trade agreements. Typically trade pacts are defined in such blocs to specify formal adjudication bodies, and these may include even more democratic and participative systems where governments facilitate processes to ensure civil commons have space to conduct businesses, interact and share with fair competitions.

According to the theory of comparative advantage, trading blocs are created because countries are moving towards a specialisation in the production of particular goods and services. Countries are reduced to producing goods and services in which they have a comparative advantage.

Assessing how Kenya and Uganda have been competing – especially on foreign direct investments since 2000 and global signs suggesting that Kenya is a failed state suffering from a clear failure to implement its National Accord – there might be more than meets the eye on the issue of Migingo Island. Our failed leadership will have to take the blame for this issue, but it is ordinary Kenyans who will suffer more.

Furthermore, it is common economic sense that countries produce and export goods which represent a lower opportunity cost of production than those of other nations. This means countries specialising in the production of any goods can form a group of nations as a whole to produce and therefore consume a greater quantity of each product. With regard to Kenya and Uganda, the economic wars we have had since the collapse of the East African Community in 1977 have been over who should be the regional market leader. The effect of this has been that all options have now been closed with the result that none of these countries can survive on their own. They are all consumer economies with no major production lines of their own. Over 80 per cent of the companies dictating the Kenyan and Ugandan economies are foreign-owned! If any shift happens, then it would favour the country showing relative stability, so to speak.

Again in the theory of production and consumption, as countries become more specialised in the production of goods, it becomes necessary to trade with countries that need these goods or that have resources that are not available in theirs. Kenya and Uganda have similar climates, relying heavily on agricultural production and fisheries. Even if they have oil, they will have to depend on the countries of the West to exploit it. There appears to be a bigger contention than what we are being told and though both countries were British colonies, the consequences might be weightier for Kenyans than Ugandans.

As the rest of the world becomes a set of global villages and nations become more specialised while building up their economies and protecting their markets, of major concern is the extent to which African countries are being embroiled in boundary issues, poor leadership, violence, the formation of militia groups, the politics of tribal chiefs and failed judicial systems. Countries are increasingly becoming interdependent and dependent on their trading partners. Where is Kenya headed to with its failing leadership?

Smaller countries like Kenya and Uganda – with fewer resources in terms of land, capital and limited technology but with an excess of labour – are generally less powerful than larger nations. The need therefore to develop economic alliances to gain more buying and selling power is strong, hence the need to build a regional trading bloc rather than fight over Migingo Island.

Our leaders, scholars and all the communities of East Africa should wake up and lead this region away from petty agendas unless they want to ensure that the East African Federation flops. It is the bigger picture that moves the world!

* Stephen Musau is the executive coordinator of Release Political Prisoners (RPP) of Nairobi, Kenya.
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