MOZAMBIQUE
POLITICAL PROCESS
BULLETIN

Election e-mail special issue 34
Wednesday 5 January 2005

Editor: Joseph Hanlon ([email protected]) Deputy editor: Adriano
Nuvunga
All back issues now on the web:
http://www.mozambique.mz/awepa/issues.htm

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IN THIS ISSUE
+ Hundreds of editais stolen
+ CNE rejects Renamo protest, but confirms Tete ballot box stuffing
+ Bulletin numbers
+ Tete & Zambezia details
+ Corrected parliament seat table
+ Results with requalified nulos
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CNE REJECTS RENAMO PROTEST
BUT CONFIRMS KEY COMPLAINTS
& SAYS MISSING EDITAIS WERE 'STOLEN'

The National Elections Commission (CNE) yesterday said that hundreds of
editais (polling station results sheets) had been "stolen" and not
included in the final results. It also admitted ballot box stuffing in
Tete. In making its various secret "corrections", the CNE says it gave an
extra parliamentary seat to Renamo in Zambezia.

The admissions that two of Renamo's key complaints were valid came at a
CNE press conference in which the CNE said it rejected Renamo's protest
over the 1-2 December elections. The statement leaves the election results
even murkier and more confused than before. Renamo said yesterday it would
formally protest to the Constitutional Council, which must validate the
election.

In announcing the rejection of the protest, CNE spokesperson Filipe
Mandlate also said that "about 1,400" polling station results sheets were
excluded, more than 5% of the total. It appears that hundreds of editais
favourable to Renamo were simply removed from the editias being processed
in Zambezia and sent to Maputo. "They disappeared. Editais were stolen,"
Mandlate said. The CNE in Maputo reconstructed enough of the results to
give Renamo an extra seat in Zambezia. It is not clear why the parties
have not given the CNE their own copies of these missing editais; there is
an explicit provision in the law to allow for this.

Mandlate also confirmed that there had been ballot box stuffing in Tete,
and that some polling stations had been excluded. This statement is
particularly confusing, since the provincial election commission said it
processed all but three editais, yet the CNE has given Tete more votes
than were assigned by the provincial election commission. It is hard to
see how this could have happened if editais were excluded. (Details of
Zambezia and Tete are given below.)

So the secret "correction" of the results continues, a month after polling
day. It will be interesting to see how the Constitutional Council unravels
this mess.

The following is an edited version of the AIM report yesterday:

6105E CNE REJECTS RENAMO PROTEST

Maputo, 4 Jan (AIM) - Mozambique's National Elections Commission (CNE) has
rejected the appeal against the results of the 1-2 December general
elections lodged by the main opposition force, the Renamo-Electoral Union
coalition.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, CNE spokesperson Filipe Mandlate argued
that the Renamo demand to annul the elections and hold new ones was out
of all proportion to the irregularities it claimed.

. Mandlate rejected the Renamo claim that the CNE had not based the
election results on the polling station results sheets ("editais")
received from the provinces. On the contrary, he said, the CNE had proved
able to process many of the editais that the provinces had not included in
the results declared in the provincial capitals - and in one case, this
had changed the distribution of parliamentary seats.

In the central province of Zambezia, the provincial elections commission
(CPE) gave 28 of the province's 48 seats to Renamo and 20 to Frelimo. But
when the CNE processed further editais from Zambezia, which had for some
reason baffled the CPE, Renamo's vote rose, and the final division of
seats was 29 for Renamo and 19 for Frelimo.

But Mandlate agreed with Renamo that, despite the CNE's efforts, a large
number of editais were not included in the final result. He put the figure
at "about 1,400", or five per cent of the total number of editais. This
essentially confirms the Renamo claim that 640 presidential and 674
parliamentary editais were omitted.

Mandlate revealed that some of the editais omitted were fraudulent ones
from the western province of Tete. These were cases where the editais
claimed that over 100 per cent of the registered electorate at the polling
station concerned had voted. He pointed out that, in cases where there are
more votes in the ballot box than names on the register, the polling
station staff themselves should declare the election at that station null
and void - but none of them had done so.

. It was not up to the electoral bodies to prosecute anyone suspected of
fraud, Mandlate stressed. "When we find indications of fraud, we notify
the Public Prosecutors Office", he said. "The matter is then in the hands
of the public prosecutor and the courts". Mandlate said he had been
informed that some cases of suspected fraud in Tete have been forwarded to
the public prosecutor.

. Mandlate said that many other editais were not processed because they
were never sent to Maputo. "They disappeared. Editais were stolen", he
declared. "Some cases of this were reported in the press" (He was
referring to the detention of a Renamo member in Nampula province, caught
trying to dispose of an inconvenient edital in his waste paper basket).

As for Renamo's claim that extra editais had been slipped into the
computer system to facilitate fraud, Mandlate described this as "political
use of a technical mistake". .

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BULLETIN NUMBERS

We apologise to anyone confused by the numbers on the Bulletin. We are
producing two different series, and by accident they have both reached the
same numbers.

Regular issues of the Mozambique Political Process Bulletin have been
produced since 1992 and are translated into Portuguese and widely
distributed in hard copy as well as e-mail. Number 31 was issued last
week. It was sent in three parts to all subscribers and summarises
everything that happened up until then in the elections.

This year, we are also producing an almost daily Election e-mail special,
of which this is one, and which has now reached issue 34. We have been
surprised at the interest and the special Bulletin now goes to more than
700 subscribers. As a subscriber to the daily special bulletin, you will
have received both. Apologies for any confusion.

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DETAILS OF ZAMBEZIA RESULTS

The provincial results declared in the provincial capital, Quelimane on 14
December, were as follows:

Presidential election - 1,990 out of 2,370 editais processed

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 234,283
Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 160,482

Parliamentary election - 1,908 out of 2,370 editais processed

Renamo 195,220 (28 seats)
Frelimo 143,998 (20 seats)

After the CNE reconsidered the Zambezia result and included requalified
nulos and some additional editais, it produced the following:

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 247,780
Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 163,959

Parliamentary election - 48 seats

Renamo 220,724 (29 seats)
Frelimo 150,318 (19 seats)

AIM estimates that these figures mean the CNE was able to find and process
and extra 46 presidential editais and 135 parliamentary editias, but that
there are about 334 missing presidential and 327 missing parliamentary
editais.

DETAILS OF TETE RESULTS

Results announced by the provincial election commission in Tete on 11
December, with 916 of 919 editais processed for each election:

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 234,677
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 73,417

Parliamentary election - 18 seats

Frelimo 236,539 (14 seats)
Renamo 66,319 (4 seats)

The still secret results of the CNE, with requalified nulos added, gives:

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 256,825
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 78,887

Parliamentary election - 18 seats

Frelimo 249,397 (14 seats)
Renamo 72,911 (4 seats)

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PARLIAMENT SEATS

An earlier version of this table had errors for Sofala, Nampula and Gaza.

To obtain seats in parliament, a party must have at least 5% of the
national vote. Only Frelimo and Renamo had more than 5%. Seats in the new
parliament, compared to seats in the past, are given below. (Figures for
seats in the 1999 and 1994 parliaments are given in brackets; in 1994
there were also 9 seats for a small coalition which is not listed here):

Province Seats Frelimo Renamo

Niassa 12 (13,13) 9 (6,7) 3 (7,4)
Cabo Delgado 22 (22,22) 18 (16,15) 4 (6,6)
Nampula 50 (50,54) 27 (24,20) 23 (26,32)
Zambezia 48 (49,49) 19 (15,18) 29 (34,29)
Tete 18 (18,15) 14 (8,5) 4 (10,9)
Manica 14 (15,13) 7 (5,4) 7 (10,9)
Sofala 22 (21,21) 6 (4,3) 16 (17,18)
Inhambane 16 (17,18) 15 (13,13) 1 (4,3)
Gaza 17 (16,16) 17 (16,15) 0 (0,0)
Maputo prov. 13 (13,13) 12 (12,12) 1 (1,1)
Maputo city 16 (16,18) 14 (14,17) 2 (2,1)
Emigrants
Africa 1 (-) 1 (-) 0 (-)
Europe 1 (-) 1 (-) 0 (-)

Total 250 160 (133,129) 90 (117,112)

Renamo had a majority in 5 provinces in 1994, 6 provinces in 1999, and
only 2 provinces this year; in Manica the two parties have an equal number
of seats. This is the first election in which Mozambican emigrants have
voted, and both seats allocated to the emigrants went to Frelimo.

And thanks to an eagle-eyed reader who picked up the mistakes.

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ADJUSTED FINAL RESULTS

AIM has used the posted totals of nulos requalified (accepted as valid) by
the CNE to produce these figures for final results for the 11 provinces:

Niassa

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 94,307
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 40,761

Parliamentary elections - 12 seats

Frelimo 92,871 (9 seats)
Renamo 39,267 (3 seats)

Cabo Delgado

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 215,884
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 51,608

Parliamentary elections - 22 seats

Frelimo 207,936 (18 seats)
Renamo 48,408 (4 seats)

Nampula

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 226,514
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 202,523

Parliamentary election - 50 seats

Frelimo 210,942 (27 seats)
Renamo 177,275 (23 seats)

Zambezia

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 247,780
Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 163,959

Parliamentary election - 48 seats

Renamo 220,724 (29 seats)
Frelimo 150,318 (19 seats)

Tete

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 256,825
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 78,887

Parliamentary election - 18 seats

Frelimo 249,397 (14 seats)
Renamo 72,911 (4 seats)

Manica

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 93,555
Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 92,544

Parliamentary election - 14 seats

Frelimo 87,114 (7 seats)
Renamo 86,942 (7 seats)

Sofala

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 201,839
Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 76,096

Parliamentary election - 22 seats

Renamo 183,787 (16 seats)
Frelimo 71,668 (6 seats)

Inhambane

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 143,829
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 19,406

Parliamentary election - 16 seats

Frelimo 129,391 (15 seats)
Renamo 16,831 (1 seat)

Gaza

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 306,006
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 5,748

Parliamentary election - 17 seats

Frelimo 291,729 (17 seats)
Renamo 5,460 (0 seat)

Maputo province

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 185,503
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 17,894

Parliamentary election - 13 seats

Frelimo 164,551 (12 seats)
Renamo 16,888 (1 seat)

Maputo City

Presidential election

Armando Guebuza (Frelimo) 218,195
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 32,989

Parliamentary election - 16 seats

Frelimo 209,590 (14 seats)
Renamo 34,717 (2 seats)

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MOZAMBIQUE POLITICAL PROCESS BULLETIN
Editor: Joseph Hanlon ([email protected])
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga
with reports from 50 correspondents
Material may be freely reprinted and circulated.
Please cite the Bulletin.
Published by AWEPA, the
European Parliamentarians for Africa