Tajudeed Abdul Raheem asks who the real terrorists are in Mogadishu: Those who have held the people to ransom for two decades or those who have chased them away?

When a people have suffered for a long time under a dictatorship the tendency is to declare that nothing could be worse than what they were experiencing. Lived experience does teach a different lesson. No matter how bad the situation is it could always be worse. But the opposite is also true. No matter how good it is it can always be better.

Who would have thought that the jubilations at the exit of Somalia's long term dictator, Mohammed Siad Barre, in 1991 would quickly turn into a prolonged nightmare for his compatriots who have not known peace or even enjoyed the protection of a legitimate government since then. Siad Barre lies reburied in Mogadishu after his body was returned from Nigeria where his life ended peacefully after being given a 'safe haven' by the Nigerian government. The country he led with 'iron fists' and 'velvet tongue' for more than two decades is wasted and wasting between different pretenders to Barre's crown, who are all warlords well-equipped to destroy states but possess no skills for building a nation.

Somalia also tragically epitomises a number of contradictions for those of us who proclaim 'African solutions to African problems' and Pan Africanism, rightly eschewing external meddling by imperialist powers in African affairs but sometimes ambiguous about the sub imperialist meddling of fellow African states. One, is our loyalty to a state or to peoples? The state of Somalia has collapsed and probably may never be one state again, but somehow the international system has kept it existing because it remains the unit of discussion whether at the AU or UN. Somali peoples, like all victims of colonialism, are divided among many countries: Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti in addition to Somalia itself. In Somalia itself the south is claiming to be Somaliland while Puntland is also claiming to be independent of both Somalia and Djibouti. Though the Somali state has collapsed the Somali people continue to exist.

Two, it is not about fixing the Somali state but actually looking at it beyond the colonial borders and finding a regional solution to it. It points to federal and con-federal arrangements of the East and Horn of African states. But this logical political conclusion challenges the basis of all our states. That is why even the laudable work of the IGAD states backed by the AU and supported by genuine friends of Africa internationally is falling short of achieving peace and stability in Somalia and the region. They are looking at it as a Somali problem (and a hard dose of prejudice of them being 'difficult' Muslims prone to clan violence) instead of being a Pan African problem.

If we respond to it boldly it will not be limited to Somalis. It will address the historical problems of being part of but not belonging, of many arbitrarily nationalities across this continent: Banyarwanda, Banyamulenge, Bafumbira, Ewes, Ja luos, Ba samia, Hausa, Yoruba, Tswana, Basuto, Tigre, to mention just a few. But it will also change the map of Africa. It is the lack of political will to face the inevitable that is making our leaders engage in half-measures that often give disproportionate influence to war lords at our negotiating tables. IGAD states did a great job in patiently facilitating and negotiating for peace in Somalia, leading to the formation of the transitional government two years ago. However the reality now is that that government has been overtaken by major political developments. To insist on it and deal with it as though it is a normal government risks making not just the TFG but also the IGADD and the AU irrelevant in resolving the Somali issue.

There are a number of reasons for this. First, though the TFG is the result of tortuous and complex negotiations that seemed all-inclusive, the warlords had more power and influence in the shape of it. Their crimes, many of them qualifying as 'crimes against humanity' were rewarded with impunity.

Two, precisely because they were rewarded instead of them changing their old ways they continued business as usual in Mogadishu, trying to gain advantage over each other. That's why the TFG has metamorphosed from a refugee government based in Kenya into an internally displaced government first hosted by the warlord, Mohammed Dheere, in Jowhar, but now relocated to Baidoa, and why the interim president, Abdulahi Yusuf, is being hosted by yet another war lord.

Three, while the TFG enjoys the diplomatic and political recognition of the AU and internationally, it does not seem to enjoy popular legitimacy and it is unable to impose its legal authority at home. Can the world force Somalis to accept a government that is ineffective and doomed to remain ineffectual? This is the context which some of the neighbours of Somalia and global geo-political power mongers are exploiting. While officially publicly offering support for the TFG their actions have helped to undermine and erode its fragile legitimacy. Chief among these are the US and Ethiopia.

The militias in Mogadishu have used both countries' unprincipled alliances in Somali politics and their obsession with 'Islamic fundamentalism' to gain support. Meanwhile Somalis fed up with the militias and wanting a 'law and order' environment and a guarantee of personal and group security for their lives and property turn to their culture, traditional structures and religion. The Union of Islamic Courts led by an ordinary teacher Sheikh Sharif Sheik Ahmed, is the umbrella under which ordinary Somalis have united to get rid of militias and warlords backed by various foreign interests. The ease with which they have moved from Mogadishu to other areas of the country should caution us from joining the sponsors of defeated and fleeing warlords who call them yet another 'Muslim fundamentalist' group. They are giving indications of being a popular movement . As yet they are unclear of their purpose as a government and probably ill-equipped to govern a modern state but they are able to bring security and peace based on notions of Islamic rule of Law and social justice. They have rendered the TFG a dead horse. For how long are we going to be insisting that Somalis ride this dead horse?

What is now happening in Mogadishu, Beledweyne and other cities is quite similar to what has happened in Somaliland, where a coalition of similar Islamist forces (up to now not recognised by any other state in the world) have managed to maintain peace and security based on a mixture of cultural order and conservative Islamic values. Neighbours and other foreigners should not be allowed to hide their sub imperialist and imperialist interests behind support for the TFG . There are reports (denied by Addis Ababa) that Ethiopia has sent troops to Baidoa and is arming the TFG, while the Americans have also denied supporting the defeated and fleeing warlords. Two of them, Bashir Rage and Sudi Yallaow, were allegedly rescued by American marines off the coast of Somalia while they were fleeing. Another war lord, Mohamed Abdi Qanyare is reported to have fled to El-Dheere while his name sake Mohammed Dheere is reported to have fled to Addis Ababa.

Meanwhile the other warlords in Mogadishu, Hussein Aideed and Ali Ato, have willingly surrended themselves to the Union of Islamic courts, hoping to join 'the storm' thy could not stop. Ato reportedly compared the highly successful routing of all the warlords by the Islamists to being 'hit by hurricane'.

As the AU meets in Banjul, Gambia next week our leaders have to reflect very seriously on the admittedly difficult challenges posed by the latest twist in the tragedy of Somalia. The IGADD states and the AU need to be sufficiently flexible and nuanced in handling this new situation. It is possible that the Union of Islamic courts may cooperate with the TFG but as long as the TFG does not insist on formal legalism. The TFG could also use the Union to build a popular legitimacy if they are seen to be cooperating. So far the Union has not been imposing leaders - rather they ask all the residents to choose their leaders to work with the new order. In some cases, significantly in Mogadishu itself, where people have opted for the leader put there by the TFG, the Union has not refused to honor that choice, hence the mayor of Mogadishu remains the same.

There needs to be clarity as to who will have sanctions imposed on them. Is it those who are now restoring order or the fleeing former warlords? If the AU encourages Ethiopia, the USA and other meddlers to continue to arm the TFG in the name of being the legitimate government it will be fueling more death and destruction and giving the fleeing warlords a new lease of life. For decades, the Somali state has been formed and reformed and deformed around the interests of various militarised local elites and various external geo-political interests. Now the voice of the people of Somalia seem to be coming out loud and clear. So the fundamental question is: Are you for the state or the people? Who are the terrorists in Somalia? Those who have held the people to ransom for two decades or those who have chased them away?

* Dr Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem is General-Secretary of the Pan African Movement, Kampala (Uganda) and Co-Director of Justice Africa

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