As campaigns end, there's a smell of a ‘Yes’ vote in the air

We have just over one week to go! Just over one week to know whether or not the means of capturing and using power will change.

My sense is that it will. The opinion polls, however disputed and varied they are, have been unanimous on this. Despite an initial dip in support for the Proposed Constitution of Kenya, support has been rising in the past month to well over the 50 per cent plus one mark required for it to pass.

If it passes, we will owe a debt of gratitude to all of those who have struggled for this – our second liberation – for the past two decades. We will finally say hongera!

Only a couple of weeks ago, based on conversations with the Committee of Experts as well as with those involved in civic education on the proposed constitution of Kenya (PCK), it was clear that critical constituencies needed to be reached with accurate information on the contents of the PCK.

These included geographical constituencies, notably in the Rift Valley, where politicians aligned to the ‘No’ camp were already campaigning on the basis of obvious distortions and outright lies, and in the Central and Eastern regions, where conservative Christian churches seemed to be doing the work of the so-called ‘watermelons’, politicians who were lukewarm publicly about the PCK but who were believed to be in the ‘No’ camp.

These also included constituencies of interest, notably women, who stand to gain from the PCK but who are inordinately represented in and presumably influenced by conservative Christian churches.

This week it is clear that civic education efforts specifically targeting those constituencies is paying off. This success is helped in no small way by two factors: First, by the standing down of the mainstream Christian churches from their initial almost vociferous ‘No’ position. And secondly by the swing by politicians from the central region in clear favour of a ‘Yes’ vote.

We could speculate ad nauseum as to the reasons behind those two factors, but I think we should note the obvious decision of some mainstream Christian leaders to stand up for the ‘Yes’ vote, as well as of some Christian congregations to take matters into their own hands and educate themselves on the contents of the PCK. In doing so they are now able able to vote with their consciences, regardless of what their leadership says.

The feedback coming in from civic educators and monitors of the process is also positive. Eastern Kenya (including the Central and the southern part of Eastern provinces) is beginning to shift into the ‘Yes’ camp, primarily being concerned about devolution and land.

Northern Kenya seems solidly in the ‘Yes’ camp due to the manner in which the PCK addresses citizenship, inequality and discrimination as well as underdevelopment through devolution, all of which are critical for that region. The Rift Valley is a mixed bag, the underlying concern being land. Western Kenya, including both Nyanza and Western provinces, is also shifting towards a ‘Yes’ vote, though persistent concerns here have to do with the provincial administration’s fate in a new constitutional dispensation and women’s human rights – choice, succession and political representation.

This vote must be according to people’s own conscience and we all can do what we want to sway that conscience. But at the end of the day people must be able to deposit their ballot entirely as they wish, without intimidation or the threat of violence.

BROUGHT TO YOU BY PAMBAZUKA NEWS

* This story first appeared in The East African
* L. Muthoni Wanyeki is the executive director of the Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC).
* Please send comments to [email protected] or comment online at Pambazuka News.