The Future of African Sovereignty in a Multipolar World: Challenges and Opportunities

Introduction

At the beginning of the 21st century Africa, according to the United Nations Commission for Africa, stood ‘as the poorest, the most technologically backward, the most debt distressed, and the most marginalized region in the world’.^[1] While Africa faced significant challenges at the turn of the century, the continent has since made remarkable progress. Africa’s combined Global Domestic Product (GDP) has grown from USD 537 billion in 1998 to $3.4 trillion in 2020, demonstrating a shift in its global economic capabilities and presenting new opportunities as a result of progress made by a landmass of 54 nations supporting more than 1.5 billion people.^[2]  Africa accounts for 12.5 percent of the world’s population but produces only 3.7 percent of global GDP.^[3]

Limitations of GDP as an Economic Indicator in Africa

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while widely used as a primary economic indicator, exhibits significant limitations in the African context. It fails to capture the substantial informal sector—this is the underground or black economy not recognized as a normal income source—which accounts for about 41 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, according to the International Labour Organization.^[4] In certain countries, such as Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe, this share rises to 60 percent. Additionally, it constitutes approximately 75 percent of non-agricultural jobs and 72 percent of overall employment in Sub-Saharan Africa.^[5] Moreover, GDP as an aggregate measure doesn’t reflect income distribution, environmental costs, or quality of life factors. For instance, Nigeria boasts Africa’s largest GDP yet grapples with extreme poverty rates. The GDP measure also falls short in accounting for technological advancements and non-monetary contributions such as unpaid care work and traditional knowledge systems, which are particularly significant in African societies.

To address these shortcomings, alternative or complementary measures can provide a more nuanced representation of African economic development and societal progress. The GINI coefficient—developed by Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and defined by the World Bank Group as ‘a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality, the wealth inequality, or the consumption inequality within a nation or a social group’^[6]—could complement GDP figures by measuring income inequality. The Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) or Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) offers more holistic views of economic progress, factoring in environmental degradation and resource depletion. The Human Development Index (HDI) incorporates health and education metrics, while the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), Social Progress Index (SPI), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) provide comprehensive frameworks for assessing development. This multifaceted approach aligns with the need for critical analysis and diverse perspectives in understanding Africa’s global economic position.

Power balances between countries remain fluid, especially as new global players seek to compete with traditional Western powers. African nations now form novel alliances that hold the ability to alter the established global order. Hence, African countries must become skilled at directing and protecting their independent path in this multi-powered world. 

In this analysis, I examine the evolving dynamics of African sovereignty in an increasingly multipolar world. I investigate how African nations can effectively navigate these shifting global power dynamics to enhance their influence in world affairs. The central question guiding this research is: How can African countries leverage economic ties, technological advancements, and regional organizations to assert greater sovereignty and influence in the multipolar global order? By critically assessing historical contexts, current economic indicators, and emerging geopolitical trends, this study aims to identify viable strategies for Africa to strengthen its position on the world stage.

Understanding African Sovereignty Throughout History

Colonialism and its effect on Africa have been widely studied.^[7] There is ample scientific literature on the political economics of colonialism and its impact on the development and delay of socioeconomic progress.^[8] The post-independent period (between the mid-1950s and 1975) posed multiple challenges for African countries: Firstly, a political challenge arose in Africa, which stemmed from the inability to create a believable bonding force, a legitimate popular sovereignty. This is the idea that people deliberate together and decide together.^[9] This entails developing and fostering popular sovereignty and legitimate leadership to carry the task of nation building. 

Secondly, the developmental challenge of social cohesion in Africa’s highly fragmented societies stems from the continent’s dark colonial legacy, which often arbitrarily grouped diverse ethnic, linguistic, and cultural communities within single national borders.^[10]  This fragmentation continues to pose significant obstacles to building a unified national identity and fostering a sense of shared purpose among citizens. Overcoming these divisions requires careful balancing of ethnic and regional interests, the promotion of inclusive policies, and the development of common national narratives that respect and integrate the diverse cultural heritage of all groups within the country.

African sovereignty faces challenges today that originated in its historical past, challenges that today have shaped the continent’s political scene. European colonization created fundamental problems which still confine African nations in how they govern, including the creation of arbitrary borders drawn during the Berlin Conference—a confab of nearly 150 years ago in which Western countries regulated European colonization and trade on the continent.^[11] This division of Africa by colonial powers resulted in the creation of countries that were either too small to support viable economies or too large and diverse to rule effectively.^[12] For example, some nations, like Gambia and Togo, now struggle with limited resources and market size, while others, like Nigeria, grapple with managing more than 250 ethnic groups within a single state, cutting across ethnic, linguistic, and cultural lines.^[13] In another instance, the Somali people, in the twenty-first century, find themselves divided between five different countries, leading to ongoing conflicts and irredentist movements. 

The challenge of fostering a united Africa is indeed significant, particularly when considering the massive continent’s rich diversity. However, it is not the presence of this heterogeneity that poses the problem, but rather the absence of innovative, attentive governance structures capable of harnessing such diversity for collective progress. Effective governance must celebrate and integrate diverse cultural, ethnic, and linguistic identities, transforming them into strengths rather than obstacles. By prioritizing inclusive policies and fostering dialogue among diverse groups, Africa can build a cohesive identity that respects its rich heritage while pursuing shared goals that benefit all while growing a more positive and influential profile globally.

But there’s more. The imposition of Western government systems and policies has frequently clashed with local traditions and indigenous governance structures, creating a disconnect between state institutions and the populace.^[14] This mismatch is evident in countries like Uganda, where the centralized state struggles to incorporate traditional kingdoms into its administrative framework. The lasting effects of these colonial legacies continue to challenge African nations in their quest for effective governance, economic development, and social cohesion, underscoring the complex interplay between historical impositions and contemporary realities.^[15]

In fact, the imposition of Western governance systems during colonial times significantly disrupted indigenous African structures, often co-opting them for colonial purposes. Policies like indirect rule, assimilation, and association sought to integrate African societies into colonial frameworks, undermining traditional governance and social customs. This legacy continues to affect and retard contemporary governance, as many African nations are confronted by hybrid systems that blend traditional and Western elements. 

Ultimately, understanding Africa in its historical context is crucial to the development of meaningful governance models that respect and incorporate indigenous practices. The establishment of such rules will foster systems that are both effective and culturally resonant in post-colonial Africa.

As one considers these times of post-colonial function, it should be remembered that along the way, the East-vs.-West Cold War brought fresh problems to African sovereignty. The continent turned into a battlefield for proxy wars between 1960 and 2002, with major conflicts erupting in Congo, Angola, and the Horn of Africa.^[16] These conflicts helped create and strengthen authoritarian regimes, as both the US and USSR propped leaders who supported the two powers’ opposing ideologies. Once again, either left behind, ignored or forgotten, Africa became a battlefield casualty. 

The world’s tilt toward a singular American superpower after 1989 created another set of hurdles in Africa’s race to relevance. Western dominance in this new order most often witnessed the Global South stuck in the crosshairs.^[17] Structural-adjustment programs and conditional aid became prominent tools to control policy,^[18] while traditional economic and cultural practices took a back seat. Western nations tied economic aid to the implementation of market policies and democratic reforms, though they rarely enforced those conditions strictly.^[19] Africa becomes a victim in others’ agendas, blowing in the winds of social injustice, political turmoil, economic uncertainty, and a feeling of helplessness against systemic issues.

Today’s historical background affects Africa’s standing in international organizations. The continent’s voice remains limited even in decisions about African matters.^[20] New global powers are emerging, and the world is becoming multipolar.^[21] This offers African nations both opportunities and challenges as each finds its safe passage between competing interests, while also making their own choices in world affairs.

Knowledge Production has a Means to Shape African Sovereignty

In the context of Africa’s evolving sovereignty in a multipolar world, addressing the structuring of knowledge production and the hegemony of Western science is crucial. The systemic foundations that perpetuate low African intellectual output and external recognition of such cerebral production and research must be examined critically. So noticeable are such realities that the African Union (AU) has taken on the formidable task of changing the narrative, creating ‘The Africa We Want’^[22] within its Agenda 2063. Without the redefinition of what the body terms ‘mental enslavement’, Africa perpetuates its diluted colonial identity. So, as an example, the Union seeks to turn around an intellectual output that, when measured by its global share in publications and expenditures in research and development (R&D), significantly lags behind other continents.^[23] This disparity is not merely a reflection of intellectual poverty, but also a result of historical and systemic racial and exclusionary barriers that prioritize Western knowledge systems over rich African intellectual traditions.

Africa’s limited contribution to global knowledge production (1.4% of the world’s publications in 2000) and its declining investment in R&D (from 1.3% in 1990 to 0.8% in 2000)^[24] reflect broader challenges in developing indigenous solutions to African problems.^[25] By recognizing and integrating African knowledge systems, the continent’s ability to assert its sovereignty is enhanced. The relationship between knowledge production and sovereignty is symbiotic, requiring a revaluation of African intellectual contributions within global frameworks. 

Increased sovereignty provides autonomy for investing in education and research, while robust knowledge production strengthens a nation’s capacity to make informed decisions and engage effectively in international diplomacy.^[26] Enhancing Africa’s intellectual output requires:

• Increasing investment in higher education and research institutions

• Developing policies that prioritize R&D across sectors

• Creating networks for knowledge sharing across the continent

• Promoting African scholarship and indigenous knowledge systems

• Leveraging technology to democratize access to education and research resources.

The African personality, buried by colonialism, must be re-exposed to allow for the free flow of ideas and discovery not impacted or influenced by Western interests. By boosting its knowledge production capabilities, Africa can better articulate its interests, develop context-specific solutions, and engage more effectively with global powers. This intellectual empowerment is crucial for Africa to transition from being a subject of global politics to becoming an active shaper of the international order in the multipolar era.^[27]

China and the Emerging Multipolar Order

The current landscape of international relations shows a dramatic change in power dynamics throughout Africa. The continent has become a vital arena for emerging powers, especially as Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICS) expand their influence. (In 2024, BRICS announced the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.) 

The economic relationship between BRICS countries and Africa has intensified significantly over the past two decades, with trade reaching approximately USD 340 billion in 2012—ten times the value recorded in 2002.^[28] China has emerged as Africa’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching USD 282 billion in 2023,^[29] which reflects the broader trend of increasing engagement between BRICS and Africa in the realms of trade, investment, and development cooperation.^[30] The BRICS alliance has strengthened its position through several key initiatives. Firstly, increased trade volumes and investment have been a cornerstone of BRICS-Africa relations. For instance, China’s trade with other BRICS countries grew by 12.1 per cent in the first five months of 2022 when compared to 2021, with mechanical and electrical products being major exports to BRICS economies.^[31]

Additionally, infrastructure development initiatives have played a crucial role in cementing BRICS influence in Africa. The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) has approved over 90 projects worth USD 32 billion to support members’ infrastructure, demonstrating a commitment to tangible development outcomes.^[32] 

Moreover, mutually beneficial resource alliances have been forged, particularly in the mineral and metals sector. Historically, African exports of these minerals and metals have predominantly been in raw form; Africa is able to purchase processed forms inexpensively. African exports of raw minerals to China alone reached nearly USD 50 billion in 2021, up from $15 billion in 2010.^[33] However, recent developments indicate a shift towards local processing. Countries like Senegal, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso are making strides in promoting domestic mineral and oil processing. This trend, coupled with Chinese investments expanding into refining and processing operations on the continent, suggests a potential transformation in Africa’s position in global value chains, moving beyond mere raw material exports to higher-value processed goods.

One more example is this: Financial cooperation through the NDB and other mechanisms has provided alternatives to Western-dominated financial institutions. The NDB, established as a partial alternative to the World Bank, has been instrumental in financing development projects and fostering economic cooperation among BRICS nations and their African partners.^[34] These multifaceted engagements have not only boosted trade and investment but also strengthened diplomatic ties, positioning the BRICS alliance as a significant player in shaping Africa’s economic landscape and challenging traditional Western influence in the region.

The West’s Evolving African Strategy

It may seem incongruous to Western encroachment, but such influence across Africa is in decline. France’s presence in francophone Africa is changing rapidly,^[35] while US trade with Africa remains at approximately a quarter of China’s volume.^[36] Howard W. French, an expert on the political affairs of Western and Central Africa, observes that China’s economic engagement with Africa is ‘vastly more developed and sustained’^[37] compared to that of the US. This shift in African economic partnerships reflects a broader realignment of African nations’ international relations. A separate but notable development occurred when 26 African nations declined to support a United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine, evidence of a complex and evolving landscape of global alliances.^[38] These events, while not directly linked, collectively suggest a changing dynamic in Africa’s relationships with global powers, including a retreat from traditional Western-centric diplomacy.

Multiple powers now compete for Africa’s resources with differing strategies. China emphasizes economic participation and infrastructure development, while Russia focuses on military cooperation by deploying private military contractors to 31 African countries.^[39]  China’s investment approach is different from Western models, as it typically comes without political reform conditions.^[40]

African nations now leverage their opportunities through the pursuit of mutually beneficial alliances. To cite an instance, South Africa sees its collaboration with BRICS as a way to promote a more multipolar world order.^[41] Likewise, Africa’s growing agency promises greater autonomy as it expands its international partnerships—as BRICS grows to include additional countries and increase its international sway, more and more African countries have expressed interest in joining the counterweight to Western influence in global affairs.^[42] And, not for nothing, BRICS growth is undeniable: From a four-country beginning in 2001 to its current roster of 10 countries, the group added eight “partner” countries in January this year.^[43]

More and more, new financing mechanisms, particularly through BRICS, have given African nations alternatives to Western institutions. This change in economic power dynamics has enabled African countries to exercise greater autonomy in their governance and development choices.^[44]

African Economic Sovereignty in a Multipolar Era

Africa’s economic reality is this: It is a continent grappling with complex challenges as it seeks to redefine its position in a multipolar world. While the shift in global economic power has presented new opportunities for African nations, the pursuit of economic independence remains fraught with contradictions. The diversification of borrowing options, rather than signifying true economic autonomy, raises questions about the sustainability of Africa’s development strategies.

Additionally, African trade patterns underscore the continent’s external dependencies, with just 10% of imports sourced internally and 17 per cent of exports remaining within African borders. These figures highlight the urgent need for greater intra-African economic integration. However, the reliance on external borrowing, whether from Western, Eastern, or other sources, poses significant risks. The specter of ‘debt traps’ looms large, potentially undermining the very independence African nations seek to achieve. This paradox demands a critical reassessment of Africa’s economic strategies, focusing on sustainable development and resource mobilization that prioritizes the continent’s long-term interests over short-term financial influxes. 

Infrastructure Development and Debt Dynamics

Debt sustainability poses growing challenges across the continent. Africa’s debt has grown substantially in the last 15 years. The total debt-to-GDP ratio jumped by 39.3 percentage points between 2008 and 2020.^[45] More worrying, the debt service-to-revenue ratio has hit record highs, suggesting an increased debt risk. More than half of African countries now face a heightened risk or are already struggling with distressed debt.^[46] 

Despite these mounting debt troubles, Africa is taking significant—and necessary—steps toward economic resilience and self-reliance. In the journey, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) emerges as a potential game-changer in the continent’s economic landscape. A flagship project of the AU’s Agenda 2063 mapping the steps toward ‘The Africa We Want’,^[47] AfCFTA marks a vital step toward economic sovereignty. A continental marketplace of more than 1.3 billion people across 55 countries with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) valued at US$3.4 trillion is a trade opportunity AfCFTA can mine to boost intra-African trade by more than 50% in its first decade.^[48]

Economic sovereignty efforts focus on aligning tariffs and regulations across the continent. These changes can boost trade efficiency. Success depends on steady foreign and domestic investment in productive industries, supportive trade policies, and better infrastructure.^[49] But, illicit financial flows continue to hurt Africa’s economic sovereignty. The continent loses about USD 88.6 billion each year, nearly 2.9% of its $3.4 trillion GDP. Better regional integration and stronger financial governance help address these challenges.^[50]

Digital and Technological Sovereignty

The quest for digital and technological sovereignty has become more significant in a multipolar world. Accounting for just 1% percent of global data center capacity, Africa faces significant challenges if it is to one day control its digital future.^[51]

The challenges grow in complexity as the digital infrastructure scene continues to change at break-neck speed. Africa’s digital infrastructure is undergoing rapid transformation, necessitating substantial investments to meet growing demands. Recent estimates show that USD 100 billion is required to provide universal, quality internet access across the continent, with 80% of this sum needed for core infrastructure to establish and maintain broadband networks.^[52] 

The current digital infrastructure needs are multifaceted and extensive. Firstly, Africa requires as many as 250,000 new 4G base stations to expand network coverage and upgrade existing 2G networks. The expansion is crucial as 4G connections are projected to grow from 12 per cent in 2020 to 28 per cent by 2025—a figure still below the global average of 57 percent connectivity.^[53] Secondly, at least 250,000 kilometers of fiber-optic cables are needed to enhance connectivity and reduce latency. The global fiber-optic submarine telecommunication cable systems market is expected to grow from USD 18.2 billion in 2024 to $37.8 billion by 2029.^[54] Thirdly, migration to 5G technology is essential for future-proofing Africa’s digital infrastructure. As of 2021, only seven commercial 5G networks had been established in five African markets, leaving lots of room for growth.^[55] Lastly, the expansion of data center capacity is critical, with Africa’s data center market projected to grow to USD 3 billion by 2025.^[56]

Data Governance and Cybersecurity

Steps to build resilient data governance frameworks are underway on the continent. The African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy and Data Policy Framework is designed for the creation of a single data market.^[57] Cybersecurity progress looks promising, but challenges remain. About 75 percent of African organizations have updated cybersecurity strategies,^[58] but 78 percent of IT department heads admit their organizations don’t deal very well with cyber-attacks.^[59]

Progress is afoot, as can be evidenced in the implementation of the AU’s Malabo Convention, adopted in 2014 and effective as of June of 2023. Focused on cybersecurity and personal data protection, the Convention outlines principles and guidelines for member states to enhance protections, safeguard personal data, define offenses, and promote cooperation among African nations.^[60] It is the only cybersecurity convention in the world that combines cybersecurity, cybercrime, electronic transactions, and data protection in one legal instrument.^[61] An official force upon the certification by 15 African countries less than two years ago, the fledgling Convention is tasked with completing other countries’ buy-in; today 39 out of 54 African countries have some level of cybersecurity legislation, leaving room for wider adoption.^[62] 

The Role of the African Union and Regional Bodies

The AU has emerged as the continent’s primary platform for engaging with foreign partners, unifying the voices of its 55 member states in global affairs. Central to the AU’s vision is Agenda 2063, a comprehensive blueprint for transforming Africa into a global powerhouse.^[63] This ambitious plan, adopted by the AU in 2013, emphasizes continental integration, sustainable development, and green practices. Agenda 2063 serves as a roadmap for reshaping Africa’s geopolitical and economic landscape, aiming to harness the continent’s vast potential while addressing long-standing challenges. Through this strategic framework, the AU seeks to foster a more cohesive and influential African presence on the world stage. Eight Regional Economic Communities (RECs) form the foundations of continental integration:

• Arab Maghreb Union (UMA),

• Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA),

• Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD),

• East African Community (EAC),

• Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS),

• Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS),

• Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and

• Southern African Development Community (SADC).^[64]

Strategic Autonomy Balancing External Partnerships

Consider strategic autonomy for Africa. This is the continent’s capacity to make independent economic, security, and diplomatic decisions. It comes in conjunction with the continent’s effective management of its relationships with global powers. Such a strategy must target economic self-improvement, security governance, and balanced diplomacy. In successfully realizing each, Africa's journey toward strategic autonomy is marked by several key developments, with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) standing out as a cornerstone initiative. The AfCFTA demonstrates the continent's commitment to greater economic integration by creating a single market for goods and services among 55 African countries, potentially becoming the world's largest free trade area. This ambitious project has the potential to lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty by boosting intra-African trade, connecting 1.3 billion people across 55 countries with a combined GDP valued at US$3.4 trillion.^[65]

This initiative, coupled with the development of regional value chains, strengthens Africa's economic resilience and reduces external dependencies. By fostering local production and cross-border trade, AfCFTA aims to create a more self-reliant African economy, less vulnerable to global market fluctuations. The development of regional value chains complements this effort by encouraging specialization and cooperation among African nations, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness on the global stage.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated African integration and highlighted the need for continental resilience against global crises, geopolitical tensions, and even climate change. The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains and healthcare systems, prompting African nations to seek more localized solutions and strengthen intra-continental cooperation. In response, Africa is building frameworks to improve its autonomy while managing partnerships effectively, such as the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) and the African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team (AVATT).

The continent's voting bloc of 54 nations in the UN—when leveraged properly and aligned with the appropriate strategic partners—has the ability to enhance its influence in global affairs, allowing for political, economic and social "wins," as well as more assertive diplomacy. This collective strength, when unified on key issues, can significantly impact UN resolutions and global policy decisions, potentially reshaping international dynamics in favor of African interests.

Africa’s major economies are guiding its relations in the changing geopolitical landscape, balancing partnerships with multiple powers. Improving trade volumes with Russia (USD 18.4 billion), China ($199 billion), Italy ($76.3 billion), France ($67.8 billion), and the US ($65.7 billion) demonstrate the impact of Africa’s strategic management of relationships.^[66] By fostering a more integrated, a more cross-pollinated and unified continent, Africa will better serve its strategic interests, particularly as it navigates between competing global powers while maintaining independence and agency in international affairs.

Conclusion

African sovereignty is at a significant crossroads as global power dynamics move toward multipolarity. The analysis above demonstrates Africa’s rocky-road journey from colonial subjugation to Cold War proxy battles. Today, one readily sees a promising yet complex network of international collaborations. Progress in several vital areas looks promising. African nations can now choose their strategic partners more freely. The regional integration through AfCFTA will boost trade between African countries. The continent’s tech capabilities grow stronger daily, although improvements in digital infrastructure and cybersecurity are necessary. 

BRICS and other power centers create fresh opportunities for African nations to assert themselves. This multipolarity enables Africa’s countries to negotiate better terms in international collaborations. Today, Africa depends less on traditional Western powers for its very being; it is inching closer to breaking free from outside influences and yammering, selfish dictates.

Africa is not out of the woods, by any stretch of the imagination. The most pressing challenges still require urgent attention. Africa needs robust data governance frameworks and more effective debt management strategies. Improved regional coordination is also crucial. The African Union’s ongoing reforms and the strengthening of regional bodies will play a vital role in achieving these objectives.

In this multipolar era, at a time when more than just one power holds sway, African sovereignty must be carefully constructed and balanced. It requires fostering productive relationships with global powers while safeguarding the continent’s interests and independence. Through regional integration, technological advancement, and astute diplomacy, Africa can transform these challenges into opportunities. This approach will not only enhance Africa’s influence in global affairs but also empower its people to exercise greater sovereignty over their territories and resources.

The bottom line may be this, as one considers the fate of Africa’s future sovereignty: Does Africa have the ability, the tools, the political savvy, and the deep-down drive to advance from such lowly modifiers as ‘poorest’, ‘backward’, ‘distressed’, and ‘marginalized’, to take a tighter grip on its future? Or to become, as it has been framed, ‘The Africa We Want’.

Endnotes