Wikileaks did not cause the ground-up revolution in Tunisia that resulted in the collapse of dictator-president Ben Ali's repressive hold. Nor for that matter did Facebook – counting 1.2 million Tunisians as users from a country of 10 million, despite the latter hosting the video of a peaceful protest that was later picked up by Al Jazeera. Instead, it was the mounting fury and despair of citizens, particularly the youth, catalysed by the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, a young 26 year old vendor who set himself alight to make his final statement. The difference between Bouazizi's death and that of other similarly brave and desperate youth, who chose to write the very same ending, was the determination of freedom fighters to take a stand that could not be ignored, smothered or cloaked behind the veneer of a forced peace as was usual in Tunisia.

The protest, led by Bouazizi's mother, would be described to Al Jazeera by his relative Rochdi Horchani, as an uprising of people who took to the streets with, “a rock in one hand, a cell phone in the other.” The use of technology by Tunisians resisting the regime's machinary was evidenced several years ago, when the country's primary labor organization, the General Union of Tunisian Workers, filmed demonstrations in the Gafsa province (after state promises to create jobs in reopened mines failed to materialise) evidenced the beatings and imprisonment of protestors as well journalists like Fahem Boukadous, sentenced to four years in prison. The labor movement posted the video on YouTube in an effort to take the message beyond the province. The state too, tried to take the brutal crackdown to a national level, presumably to send a warning.

What Wikileaks did, rather, was disclose confidential US cables revealing Tunisia's Ben Ali as 'an old friend', acknowledging also the country's living reality as a police state without freedom of expression, characterised by serious human rights violations problems. Dated 2009, the cables situate Tunisia as a country that 'should' be an ally, but has yet to realise its potential chiefly due to Ben Ali and his sclerotic regime though Tunisia's commercial and military assistance to the US was noted. But the US's position toward Ben Ali was clarified when the cable advised, “major change in Tunisia will have to wait for Ben Ali's departure.”

And so, the fall of Ben Ali could be perceived from the US perspective as a positive not a negative outcome. Citing the Tunisian youth's admiration for the US's way of life, in spite of anger leveled against the Iraq war, the cables stated that Ben Ali was not an ally, implying that he not vital to US foreign policy. In fact, the opposite is true.

But the danger of Tunisia's uprising, and perhaps the main reason for tolerating Ben Ali's regime, lies in the fact that it is located next door to Egypt, the US's most crucial geostrategic ally located astride both the Middle East and North Africa, conveniently containing the Gaza strip – a Hamas stronghold, using $1.2 billion annual military aid supplied by the US. Egypt is the US's second largest foreign aid recipient after Israel, a tradition that began some three decades ago, financing Mubarak's 28 year dictatorship. Even USAID, according to the US-based Carnegie Endowment Center, “adopted a policy of only funding those organizations officially registered and approved as NGOs by the Egyptian government." President Obama even selected Egypt as the scene for his 'message' to the Muslim world titled, 'A New Beginning'.

The US perception is that any regional move for democracy within Tunisia, whether or not such is connected to Islamic movements, would inspire the same in neighbouring Egypt, where the anti-Zionist Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition party with immense ground support, would easily win democratic elections, ousting in the process, Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP). But the Muslim Brotherhood is banned and members regularly tortured and detained by the secret police and the Mukhabarat – Egypt's intelligence service. Meanwhile the party itself is marginalised and vilified, justified by Mubarak's regime as an 'Islamic terrorist organization'.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, US State Department spokesperson PJ Crowley, repeated the US's official position, emphasizing that Egypt's uprising was unlike Tunisia's, and that only reform was needed in Egypt, describing Tunisia's revolution as 'indigenous'. He said the US urged restraint from 'both' sides and supported the right of Egyptian's to protest peacefully and access social media as a 'right'. No mention was made of Egypt's repressive regime engaging in torture through US-financed weaponry. Crowley was insistent in his claims that Egypt was relied on as an invaluable ally to the US, an anchor and 'stabilising' force in the region, helping the US pursue peace in the region. Most crucially, Crowley described it as a regime that “made its own peace with Israel, and is pursuing normal relations with Israel, we think that’s important.”

While a shake-up is in the process, already, the consequences are designed to remove the 'figure' of terror, as Mubarak has become known in Africa, to a quiet replication of policies under Mubarak's new Vice President, Omar Sulieman – previously the head of Egypt's secret police, perceived as a staunch US and Israeli ally.

Unlike Tunisia, even as Egyptians presently sentenced to life without freedom rise up from the catacombs, the battle for Egyptian democracy is not simply a matter of national revolution, but foreign policy sustaining circles of power and influence. These factors determine the rise and fall of empires. While Egypt's revolution may be televised, liberation will not come easily.

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* Khadija Sharife is the southern Africa correspondent for The Africa Report magazine and a visiting scholar at the Centre for Civil Society (CCS) based in South Africa.
* This article first appeared in New Age.
* Please send comments to [email protected] or comment online at Pambazuka News.