Beware, they're waiting to subvert the constitution

This is it! By the end of next week, we shall know whether or not we finally (finally!) have a new constitution. Frenetic work has been done by the Committee of Experts, the media and a host of civil society organisations as well as citizens in their individual capacities to educate people on the contents of the draft.

As the outcome seems clear (a Yes vote and with a clear majority, according to the opinion polls) attention is shifting to the no less onerous tasks that lies ahead: Coming back together again regardless of how we vote, and the implementation of the outcome.

The Society of International Development has provided us all with sobering scenarios to consider as we move into the post-referendum phase. Its report, Searching for a More Perfect Union: Scenarios for Kenya’s constitutional referendum, was released last week.

The report sketches the history of the constitutional reform project and identifies those who stand to benefit and those who stand to lose should the Proposed Constitution of Kenya be adopted.

The report then outlines three possible scenarios for us: Hatutaki, Ndoto, and Kula Vumbi.

In the Hatutaki (‘We don’t want it’) scenario, the No vote prevails and the story then goes into the consequences.

It is not a good story, being about the divisions and rifts caused by the unquestionable blow to the authority of the two Principals and the Grand Coalition Government should the constitution fail to pass.

The Ndoto (‘Dream’) scenario has the Yes vote succeeding, but the story then continues to spell out the consequences of reality setting in when it comes to managing expectations and the mammoth costs of implementation.

The worst scenario (to me) is Kula Vumbi (‘Bite the dust’), in which vested interests, sensing defeat and eventual accountability, use their old tricks to ensure that the polling and tallying are marred by or followed by maximum violence. It is a horrible story — the outcome is essentially a No vote.

At this point, it seems clear that the Ndoto scenario will probably succeed (knock on wood). And, naturally, the impulse now of those who have worked so hard for this through several generations will be to celebrate, if only for a moment. To realise the potential of a Yes vote, we are all going to have to take a deep breath and dive in yet again to work against the political and economic interests that have always co-opted, perverted or otherwise thwarted change.

And don’t imagine those interests are sleeping on the job. On the contrary they are always (always!) ahead of us all.

The first battles will no doubt be over the membership of the implementation commission and the parliamentary select committee on implementation.

There will be a huge mass of legislation to be drafted and passed when our parliament’s rate of passage of legislation is six to eight pieces a year.

Fundamental institutional changes will need to be effected in the security services, the judiciary, the entire public service. It will be confusing.

BROUGHT TO YOU BY PAMBAZUKA NEWS

* Muthoni Wanyeki is executive director of the Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC).
* This article first appeared in the East African.
* Please send comments to [email protected] or comment online at Pambazuka News.