Swapo (South West Africa People's Organisation) of Namibia has been in charge of Namibian politics since independence in March 1990. In late 1994 the former liberation movement expanded its absolute majority obtained in United Nations-supervised elections in November 1989 into a two-thirds majority of seats in the National Assembly. In 1999 and 2004 this political hegemony was consolidated into a three-quarters majority of votes, with 55 out of the 72 political mandates obtained, notwithstanding the challenges of the Congress of Democrats (CoD).

The CoD was formed just ahead of the 1999 elections as the first political alternative based on dissenting former Swapo activists. While it emerged as the biggest single opposition party, it never managed to make inroads into the Swapo electorate. In 2008, the CoD imploded over internal differences, power struggles and fights over resources.

The Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP) emerged as relevant substitute for the CoD. It was founded by two former cabinet members, Jesaya Nyamu and Hidipo Hamutenya, who were both political heavyweights from the first struggle generation in exile, before losing a Swapo internal power struggle over the succession of Sam Nujoma as head of state. Given the new party’s affinity to parts of Swapo’s regional stronghold in the northern region of Namibia, the RDP was considered to be the first serious challenge to Swapo’s dominance. This widely held perception contributed to the aggressive Swapo response. The RDP was denounced to be composed of traitors, who according to this view – one bordering on paranoia – were labelled as agents of imperialism and remote-controlled pawns acting in the interests of regime change. The responses from both higher-party levels as well as by local grassroots activists were heavy-handed and contributed to a climate of repression hitherto unknown. A witch-hunt for so-called hibernators, suspected to undermine Swapo structures from the inside as moles for the RDP, was initiated and marred the public discourse for the last two years.

On various occasions the right to campaign freely was denied to RDP activists, who were accused of provoking Swapo supporters in their local strongholds. Properly registered political rallies were prevented from taking place in public space with the argument that they were arranged in Swapo territory. This led to several clashes between members of both parties and acts of physical violence. Police forces had to intervene on several occasions and dispersed the crowd by using teargas. For the first time since independence, an election campaign in Namibia turned visibly ugly. Leading political office-bearers in the two main rival parties were ignoring an orderly conduct and used aggressive language bordering on hate speech. The tensions were indicative of the degree of contestation and confrontation and did not bode well for the state of Namibian democracy.

THE ELECTION PROCESS

In 2009 the Namibian electorate cast its votes on two consecutive days (27 and 28 November) for the first time. The reform of the electoral law also provided for a vote count at the polling stations in the presence of observers. However, the results were then transmitted to the headquarters of the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) in Windhoek for final verification before they were officially announced. This resulted in a considerable delay, so that the official end result was made known after days of speculation only on 4 December. Given the relatively small number of votes counted (just exceeding 800,000), this added to the irritation among those already afraid of efforts at manipulation.

In spite of such concerns, the minister for diplomatic affairs in the Office of the President of Mozambique was the first to present as head of the 120-member SADC (Southern African Development Community) Electoral Observer Mission (SEOM) a complete and unreserved whitewash of the elections as 'transparent, credible, peaceful, free and fair'. Observer missions from the Parliamentary Forum of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) were also declaring the elections as free and fair as early as 1 December.

A spokesperson of the 40-member SADC observer team recommended a return to one polling day in compliance with the other SADC countries and to allocate equal airtime to all parties during the election campaign in the state-owned broadcasting company NBC (Namibian Broadcasting Corporation). He noted 'vigorous coverage of the electoral process in a balanced manner' by the local (predominantly private-owned) print media but criticised the state broadcaster NBC for its bias in favour of Swapo.

In the presentation of the preliminary report of the 24-member observer mission from the AU, retired Tanzanian Justice Lewis Makame conveyed the mission's approval of the elections with reference to 'minor problems', which included a 'painstakingly slow' counting process. It found fears of vote-rigging expressed among the opposition parties not supported by evidence but felt at the same time 'not in the position to say that there was no rigging'.

The 17-member observer mission of the Pan African Parliament (PAP) presented a day later a more nuanced assessment with some noteworthy critical undertones. It questioned the policy of the state-owned radio and television company NBC, which it accused of undue support for Swapo, and recommended that 'the State media in Namibia be insulated from direct Government control by the establishment of an independent media institution with the responsibility of appointment and dismissal of heads of State media'. Mission leader Ambrose Dery from Ghana also raised concern over the printing of 1.6 million ballot papers (for an registered electorate markedly below one million) as a potential recipe for vote-rigging. Although the mission had concluded that the elections took place within the constitutional and legislative framework, it felt that Namibia could do much better.

For the first time in Namibian elections local civil society institutions and agencies had formed their own election observation teams. The Namibian Institute for Democracy (NID) in a statement declared that it had noted several minor flaws but not observed any grave irregularities and therefore trusted that the results were by and large credible. It announced a more detailed report for January. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), which had created an election watch website, also refrained from any fundamental criticism and seemed largely satisfied that the results reflected the will of the voters.

Most opposition parties were less reconciliatory. Eight of them announced in a joint statement on 4 December that they bring a list of irregularities to the Namibian justice system to seek a clarification in court if and to what extent the election results were acceptable. In 2004–05 this led to a legal battle ending in a re-count of the votes, with an ultimate confirmation of the results as announced originally. Queries by those initiating legal intervention include not only the delay in the announcement of the official results through a verification process of which the parties were not informed in advance, but also the disputed voters' role with differing figures at different times, reports of multiple registrations by the same individuals, incidences where the supposedly indelible ink marking fingers of those who had voted could be removed, as well as the fact that the ballot papers for both the National Assembly and the presidential elections were marked using pencil. In one case two officials were arrested for the unauthorised opening of a ballot box at the polling station during the two days of voting.

Further suspicion was created by the exceptionally high number of votes cast in several districts (in contrast to markedly less votes than in prior elections in other districts with less support for the governing party). According to Namibian election laws, tendered votes can be cast in polling stations other than the one they are registered with. As a result, three polling stations in the northern stronghold of Swapo recorded 129 per cent, 133 per cent and 135 per cent of registered votes respectively. Since these were located in rural districts with a low degree of mobility in the sense of influx from other regions, this is more difficult to explain than the exceptionally high rate of votes in some of the urban centres such as Swakopmund (112 per cent), Walvis Bay (110 per cent) and two districts in Windhoek (104 per cent and 101 per cent). Some consider this as evidence of ballot-stuffing. Such disturbing results give at least food-for-thought if the possibly over-eager appeals of some leading Swapo politicians during the election campaign to secure 150 per cent of the votes or at least all parliamentary seats were taken too serious by some of the loyal local activists.

THE ELECTION RESULTS

Notwithstanding such dubious symptoms, many observers would however concede that the Swapo dominance only reconfirmed the firm and efficient control exercised over the Namibian electorate by the party in political power. If only to the dislike of some, Swapo’s political rule in Namibia for a series of reasons – not least the failure of dissenting views to organise effectively in opposition parties – resembles all features of a dominant party system. This is hardly reason enough to blame the winner.

For the first time a considerable number of young voters were able to express their preferences. These 'born free' were during the pre-election build-up due to their sizeable numbers considered to be of some influence over the outcome and hence a much speculated 'unknown variable'. This could have positively influenced the campaign strategy by Swapo as for the first time the cultivation of the liberation gospel was complemented by an emphasis on the claimed achievements since independence. At the end, the 'born free' seemingly did not play any decisive role in changing the voting pattern.

National Assembly elections

The official end results announced by the ECN confirmed the hegemonic status of Swapo. The table below is compiled on the basis of the official figures released. It documents that little has changed in terms of the fundamental political power relations for the forthcoming five-year legislative period.

National Assembly election results 2009

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The loss of one seat for Swapo is certainly anything but a defeat. The party will however be well-advised to take note of the 'pockets' of dissenting votes cast in some of the urban centres as well as the central and southern parts of the country. In parts of the Caprivi and Kavango it has strong contestation from RDP and the All People’s Party (APP) respectively. Among the Damara the United Democratic Front of Namibia (UDF) under Chief Garoeb remains the most popular, albeit locally confined, force while among the Herero communities Chief Riruako draws considerable support for National Unity Democratic Organization (NUDO). Herero support is also provided to the DTA, as represented by Katuutire Kaura and most likely the Herero leadership in SWANU (South West Africa National Union).

At some polling stations in Windhoek the RDP emerged as the winner and Swapo also lost a majority among the Baster community in Rehoboth to the RDP. Swapo’s majority in the southern and eastern regions has been reduced. Since the first elections for independence, it has relied more than ever on its stronghold in the so-called four O-regions of the former Ovamboland (Oshana, Omusati, Oshikoto and Ohangwena), where it is for historical reasons firmly anchored and remains despite the RDP challenge (with their leaders coming from some of these regions), a challenge which is not only by far the biggest but in most areas still the only fish in the pond. Given that this is the electorate, which holds more than half of the votes, even Swapo – like most of the smaller parties – bears traces of an ethnic character.

Despite being the new kid on the block, and notwithstanding the fact that it has emerged as the new official opposition, the RDP has little reason to celebrate. Its leadership certainly had much bigger hopes and publicly proclaimed markedly higher aspirations during the election campaign. Measured against the expectations created, a sobering time has begun. While the RDP boasted of having a database with close to 400,000 supporters, they only managed to garner less than 100,000 votes. As of 21 March 2010, four of their eight MPs taking seats in the National Assembly have in their earlier political life already represented Swapo in this august house. They will have to show in the five years ahead that they can make a difference and are more than old wine in new bottles. This will not be an easy task, especially when confronted with the merciless dogmatic and unforgiving dominance of Swapo, which will be anything but accommodating.

The predictable top loser has been the CoD, which collapsed from official opposition status into irrelevant marginality. The two party founders managed to survive on one mandate each under the CoD flag (with party president Ben Ulenga returning to parliament) and the newly established APP. The latter only testifies to the ethnic–regional dimension successfully mobilised by its party leader Shixwameni in the Kavango capital of Rundu. The same pattern of ethnic–local support applies to some extent also to the RP, the DTA and MAG, which draw most votes among the white electorate. Their declining influence can be seen as a further political marginalisation of the white minority, which is now hardly represented in parliament. The replacement of MAG as the conservative Afrikaans-speaking advocacy group by SWANU as the oldest anti-colonial organisation in existence has most likely no immediate political impact. But it represents a remarkable symbolic shift in terms of emancipation from a not-so-long ago settler–colonial past.

SWANU can be seen as the winner among the smaller parties. Despite its long track record in the anti-colonial struggle and several tests through internal differences over its political positioning – which resulted in almost suicidal splits prior to independence – it has for the first time managed to obtain representation in the National Assembly. This might be the result of some visible campaigning efforts, which left a mark on the public sphere. If this is the case, then Namibian democracy seems to indeed exist to at least some encouraging degree, as SWANU through its active promotion of the party’s programme would have managed to obtain votes. Its party president, elected into the National Assembly on the last seat available (and some 200 votes ahead of MAG), has declared to use the parliamentary forum for the promotion of the party’s socialist policy programme.

Maybe this allows him (given the lack of support to the CP) to contribute to a discourse which assists in bringing about more equality for the majority of the population – including women, who might have been the biggest losers in Namibian society during these elections. Their number among the parliamentary representatives decreased to 16 – a far cry from reasonably equal representation.

Presidential elections

The results of the presidential election, conducted in a parallel voting act on separate ballot papers, showed – as in all previous elections – that the votes for Swapo’s candidate actually exceeded those for the party. Hifikepunye Pohamba received almost 9,000 votes more than the party list, which underscores his status as a respected leader who is entrusted by the electorate with running the affairs of the republic as the head of state. This is a remarkable vote of confidence after a number of internal disputes during his first term in office, when party factions challenged his policy of reconciliation towards some party members accused of being 'unreliable'. Here are the top runners as extrapolated from the official figures:

Presidential election results 2009

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The re-elected president Pohamba could use this vote of confidence of his abilities as office-bearer to execute with authority his comparatively moderate line of policy in the party he represents. Originally almost forced into office as the declared crown prince of the founding father Sam Nujoma and reluctant himself to pursue such a career, he was a representative of a reconciliatory approach, who declared to take a firm position on combating corruption. During his first term in office, he did not meet such expectations and too often showed leniency towards the orthodox party hardliners pushing for a more exclusivist and dogmatic approach. At times he seemed to be caught between his party loyalty and his own values as a man who prefers peace and harmony to polarisation. Inspired by conservative Christian values, he hardly represented antagonistic tendencies but rather sought dialogue and promoted mutual respect. For him the slogan 'unity in diversity' seemed to have meaning, though at times he also bowed to pressure by articulating more the arrogance of power that the dogmatic party faction prefers. It occasionally looked as if he was a prisoner of his loyalty to the party while he personally would have liked to pursue other options to seek a common understanding with those parts of Namibian society not convinced that Swapo alone is the best for the country.

Only when his candidacy for a second term started to be questioned by those who were seeking a more autocratic leadership style and a rigorous purge of those suspected of not toeing the hardcore line, he stood up to defend his claim for being the party’s elected president and therefore the obvious and only candidate for nomination. He thereby visibly challenged (and silenced, at least in public) efforts to erode his legitimacy. Originally perceived as an interim president for one term in office only, he now has another five years to try to convince those doubting his perseverance and steadfastness that he is indeed the president able to bring more harmony and respectful interaction to the country’s political culture.

The retired autocratic president and firebrand Sam Nujoma has never stopped being politically active and has continued to pull strings. In 2009 he provided the media with some stunning examples of Mugabe-style polemics. It remains to be seen to what extent his time is gradually coming to an end. The fraternity between him and his handpicked successor has certainly been damaged, since Pohamba did not live up to the expectations following his master’s voice. The list of party candidates for the new National Assembly had no clear handwriting of either Nujoma or Pohamba but reflected more so a gradual shift in generation from the first original Swapo cadres (who approach a biological expiry date) to a younger age group. More so, the appointment of the new cabinet to be sworn in on 21 March 2010 might provide evidence (or at least promote further speculation) on who currently has the ultimate say in party matters.

While Swapo and its president can with confidence claim to have defended their hegemonic status and mastered the RDP challenge, the next five years might prove to be decisive in terms of the political culture pursued. If the dogmatic and narrow-minded view that Swapo alone stands for Namibian patriotism prevails, the country’s already damaged reputation will suffer more and the internal divisions will deepen further. The peaceful conduct of the elections and the civil forms of coming to terms with its results should not ignore the worrying signs of increased violence ahead of the elections. Those politically responsible among all social forces will face an enormous challenge to maintain peace and stability. The decisive factor in this will remain Swapo and its policy.

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* Dr Henning Melber is executive director of the Dag Hammarskjöld foundation in Uppsala, Sweden, and a member of Swapo (South West Africa People's Organisation) since 1974.
* This article is part of a text drafted for the publication series ‘Perspectives’ by the Southern Africa regional office of the Heinrich Böll foundation. A more extensive version of this article is available from the Heinrich Böll foundationwebsite.
* Please send comments to [email protected] or comment online at Pambazuka News.