Media and other reports over the weekend of April 2-3 2004 said that President Sam Nujoma has now officially “confirmed he would not seek a fourth term” of office and that he has “laid to rest speculation over the fourth term once and for all”. It has also been reported that Nujoma would now abide by the Namibian Constitution and would step down on March 21 2005 when his third term ends. Read the Press Statement by Nujoma: “The President of SWAPO reiterated his earlier decision that in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of Namibia, he will not seek another term of office, and will step down at the end of his term on 21st March 2005”.

This obviously “shock” announcement, which purports to have been made by Nujoma himself, came after a rather tumultuous SWAPO Central Committee (CC) meeting held over the said weekend. This ‘official’ announcement is a far cry from another “shock” announcement by Nujoma who only on March 30 2004 reportedly indicated to a Reuters’ reporter that he might go for a fourth term “if the people” wanted him to do so. Vox populi, vox Dei, meaning “the voice of the people is the voice of God”.

Also, please note that what is conspicuously missing from the above statement is the fact that it does not say that Nujoma would not accept or entertain any further demands from any quarters that he stands for a fourth term.

Since 2002, Nujoma has been making similar flip-flop statements about his desire for a fourth term: in some cases he has indicated that he would step down, inter alia, because of his age, while in others he has indicated that he would go for a fourth term, among other things, because he was “still young”.

Over the April 2-3 2004 weekend, however, Nujoma cited only the constitutional limitation as the prime reason for his stepping down. In the past, when considering whether or not he would stand for a fourth term the Constitution did not appear to matter. The President has no track record of spontaneously adhering to the Constitution. Why all of a sudden now?

On Sunday evening April 4 2004 NBC TV News showed “joyous” SWAPO members in what appeared to be a celebrating mood. This mood was apparently caused by their decision that Nujoma should step down and that three candidates - announced in this order, Hifikepunye Pohamba, Nahas Angula and Hidipo Hamutenya - be nominated to vie for the presidential post. The winner of the three will be determined at the extraordinary SWAPO congress to be held on May 28-29 2004.

Media reports also indicated that central committee (CC) members turned down and rejected three of Nujoma’s four nominees, who included Secretary General Ernest Tjiriange and his deputy John Pandeni.

Hence, the “joyous” mood on the part of the committee members appears to confirm media speculations that there was “fierce” opposition to Nujoma’s fourth term bid. In the likely event that this, indeed, was the case, it is fair to conclude that a victorious palace revolution (or revolt) against not only the fourth term but also Nujoma’s authority has occurred during the said CC meeting. That is to say, Nujoma was subdued, vanquished and forced to shelve - albeit temporarily - his fourth term bid and all other collateral plans associated with the said term of office.

During the Politburo meeting on March 30 2004 Nujoma is said to have issued an ultimatum to his subordinates to choose between two things: either to accept Pohamba as the sole presidential candidate or to face a fourth term for him. Politburo members, however, “fiercely” opposed and defied such ultimatum.

My question is: how and why should Nujoma allow himself to be humiliated or insulted by people whom he has the executive power to constitutionally dismiss summarily in the same manner he had appointed them? In terms of both the country’s Constitution and SWAPO’s own constitution, Nujoma has the power to summarily dismiss anyone not towing his line. He also has popular support among rank and file SWAPO members to disciplining anyone seen as disloyal to him. Simply put, President Nujoma is unstoppable!

Nujoma is bound to retaliate and punish those who dare to oppose his plans for many years. He has done so in the past with Tony von Wietersheim and recently with Hage Geingob, Ernest Tjiriange, Nangolo Mbumba and others. Constitutionally, President Nujoma has also the executive power to sack the entire Cabinet and even to dissolve the National Assembly if he so wished.

Hence, I am cautiously optimistic that Nujoma will, indeed, step down come March 21 2005. Or am I? Such optimism is based on my observations of incidental events or occurrences inside and outside this country, including:
Nujoma has been preparing for the fourth term at least since the dismissal of former Prime Minister Hage Geingob. This was followed by the demotion of Finance Minister Nangolo Mbumba, followed by the removal of Ernest Tjiriange from his post as Minister of Justice.

Hidipo Hamutenya who, according to media allegations, Nujoma fears or dislikes the most - and neither Nujoma nor Hamutenya has so far dismissed these allegations - was removed from his powerful and influential post at the Ministry of Trade and Industry and transferred to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs minus the portfolio of the equally influential Minister of Information and Broadcasting.

Since August 2002 Nujoma or those he has sent encouraged or instigated among others Owambo traditional leaders and rank and file SWAPO supporters to march in favour of the fourth term. He has commissioned the construction of a multimillion Namibia dollar new State House. I am not a bit convinced that Nujoma would build a castle to be inaugurated by Lucas Pohamba, his favoured successor, let alone for Hidipo Hamutenya or Nahas Angula.
Rank and file SWAPO members credit Nujoma personally for having “liberated” this country and for being the only person capable - and I agree - of keeping SWAPO Party unity, from where national unity and peace as well as the relative stability flow, in this country. Under these circumstances, Nujoma cannot now, all of a sudden, be expected to shelve all these good things on which he has been working so hard at.

As in 2002 during his address to the opening of the SWAPO CC over the April 2-3 2004 weekend Nujoma made it clear that Party divisions were unacceptable, warned against infighting and urged unity among SWAPO members. Indeed, there are “widespread” divisions and “a potential rift” within SWAPO as various factions vie for support within and possibly without the ruling Party.

Seeing that the three leaders that the SWAPO CC has nominated to compete for the presidency would engage in what could be viewed as sowing Party divisions and disunity as well as posing a threat to national stability and security, this could be used by Nujoma and others as an excuse.

Hence, he could even use his constitutional powers to dissolve Parliament in accordance with the provisions of Article 57, read together with Articles 26, 32 (3)(a) and 50 of the Constitution. In this case, presidential and National Assembly elections would be held within 90 days to create a completely new Parliament and new Cabinet with Nujoma as new Head of State. Hence, there would be no need for holding a national referendum referred to in Articles 63 (2) (g) and 131 of the Constitution.

Furthermore, as a human rights activist specializing also in early warning systems, I smell a rat due to the over-intensive interactions between the principals of Namibian and Zimbabwean governments lately. I am particularly deeply alarmed by ominous signs of a Zimbabwe-style human rights and humanitarian crisis developing in this country. In addition to the aforementioned internal Party divisions within SWAPO there are several indicators pointing out to this scenario.

I am alarmed at the frequency of both high and low profile visits to this country by high-ranking Zimbabwe officials, especially those who have been pivotal in engineering and sustaining the current human rights and humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe, including Nujoma’s principal ally Robert Mugabe.

It is my belief that President Nujoma, called “a Mugabelite” by some media, is probably the closest ally of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe in the whole world. According to media reports, Mugabe has indicated he would not step down when his present term of office comes to an end sometime in 2008. If this is true - and I believe it is - then why on earth should Nujoma step down now, leaving his friend Mugabe to face a very hostile world alone?

Last November Mugabe arrived here under cover of secrecy. The exact purpose of his visit has not [yet] been disclosed officially. But according to State-controlled media, Mugabe came here for bilateral talks, including “the strengthening of security cooperation”.

Hence, my suspicion is that Nujoma and Mugabe might have signed a mutual defence pact along the lines of the SADC mutual defence pact concluded at Dar es Salaam, Tanzania in August 2003. The Namibian Parliament has since ratified the SADC pact paving the way for SADC Member States to intervene diplomatically, politically and militarily in the internal affairs of another country to remove a threat to national security and integrity and restore or enforce peace.

Prior to the Mugabe visit, Zimbabwean Home Affairs Minister Kembo Mohadi visited Namibia sometimes in July 2003 and paid a courtesy call on President Nujoma. Mohadi also held talks with his Namibian counterpart, Home Affairs Minister Jerry Ekandjo, and visited several police stations in Windhoek and possibly elsewhere in the country.

Then came the “shock” announcement in the evening of February 25 2004 when Namibian Prime Minister Theo-Ben Gurirab “out of the blue” stated that there will be a land expropriation drive in order to “speed up” land reform in the country. This announcement came on the eve of the visit to this country by Mugabe’s propaganda Minister, Professor Jonathan Moyo. Moyo is a principal engineer in the Mugabe’s land grab fiasco.

The Moyo visit entailed touring Namibia’s Government-controlled media institutions: NBC, New Era and Nampa as well as the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB). The visit peaked in the signature of a MOU between the two countries apparently on media matters. The content of such MOU has never really been disclosed. Professor Moyo called his visit a ‘happy coincidence’.

On March 11 2004 Zimbabwe’s Defence Minister Sydney Sekeremayi paid a low-key visit to Namibia where talks were held with President Nujoma. Sekeremayi then headed north apparently to inspect Namibia’s military installations at Grootfontein and possibly other places in the country. The Zimbabwe Defence Force (ZDF) has at least two aircraft in this country, purportedly to help in the evacuation of flood victims in the Caprivi Region. The question is: was Namibia now really unable to deal with the flooding situation in the Caprivi Region?

Over the April 2-3 2004 weekend, Mugabe seconded to Namibia six of his “experts” in land reform to “advise” and “train” Namibians on the techniques of “compensation” for expropriated lands. There has never been similar compensation in Zimbabwe in respect of any lands expropriated by Mugabe. Moreover, Minister Lucas Pohamba recently explained in Parliament how disagreements over the amount of compensation for expropriated land could be taken to land Boards.

Hence, in my opinion these Zimbabwe contacts are no mere coincidences. Nor can they be seen in isolation. They are interconnected, interrelated, interdependent and mutually reinforcing.

Again, such contacts come at the time when there is wholesale ambiguity on whether or not President Nujoma would go for a fourth term as well as widespread media speculations that there is “stiff” resistance within and without the ruling SWAPO party against the 4th term for Nujoma, if not against Nujoma himself as both President of SWAPO and Namibia. This scenario is similar to the situation prevailing in Zimbabwe prior to Mugabe’s seizure of white-owned farmlands and his unleashing of violence on civil society organisations and the political opposition in that country.

Hence, the true picture is bound to emerge in the days, weeks and months to come, possibly before the extraordinary SWAPO Congress scheduled for May 28 –29 2004.

* Phil ya Nangoloh is Executive Director of the National Society for Human Rights, Namibia.

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