Will 2015 mark the beginning of a quiet revolution in Nigeria?

‘Lies may be flying for decades but one minute of truth would catch up with them and overtake them’. —A Yoruba proverb

This Yoruba proverb aptly captures the story of Mohammadu Buhari’s ordeal in the hands of those who make lies and malicious propaganda about him their stock in trade. All the carefully crafted narratives of how Buhari is a northern irredentist, a Muslim fundamentalist, a sadistic dictator who revels in trampling on the human rights of those he doesn’t like, especially those from the southern parts of the country who also tend to be Christians, have fallen like a pack of cards. The truth about Buhari has simply overtaken the lies. The reason is simple.

To find that reason, I invite you, this time not to the land of Oduduwa, but to the land of the philosopher Confucius. The Chinese philosopher was once asked what are the basic ingredients of good governance. When he answered “Food, weapons and the trust of the people,” a disciple wanted to know which of the three he would dispense with. Confucius said “Weapons.” And of the remaining two, which one would he drop if he had to? Confucius said “Food.” The disciple protested that without food the people will die. Confucius replied that “From time immemorial, death has been the lot of human beings. But a people that no longer trusts its rulers is lost indeed.”

Revolutions happen when the people have lost trust in those directing their affairs on their behalf. This is exactly what has happened at the presidency in Nigeria. And this is where Buhari comes in. Over the years his modest lifestyle has won him millions of admirers. In a land where being in public service is synonymous with stealing vast sums of public funds, a man who had managed the petroleum industry plus the multibillion dollar Petroleum Trust Fund, was governor, was president, and still remains relatively poor, has finally won the hearts of most of his fellow compatriots. Nigerians look back with nostalgia at the 20-month stint Buhari had at the helm of their affairs; and they see his leadership qualities and cannot but admire them. They know of his singular love for his country. They know he follows to the letter the injunction of his religion that forbids stealing. The more his detractors try to turn his best qualities against him, the more the people love him. The lies about him have run their full course and been overtaken by the truth about the man. What could be rightly termed the excesses of the Buhari regime 30 years ago have now turned into his strength. Nigerians are so sick of the suffocating kleptocracy that goes on in the name of governance that if this Buhari were to disappear today, they’ll look for another Buhari and make him their president. Yes, they’re tired of the ongoing death and kidnapping of their fellow citizens and the reign of terror they’re forced to live with while their president and commander-in-chief is content with going dancing or looking for who to blame while his house burns. They’re tired of hearing of huge sums of money missing or half missing with no one being held to account. They’re tired of seeing their country made a laughing stock in the comity of nations.

For the first time in decades, Nigerians have suffered enough that they now listen carefully to what people like Buhari are saying, and they long for him to be at the helm of their affairs. They see those trying to dissuade them by telling them to continue with the present rot as enemies of progress. And this is why all the lies they’ve been telling about Buhari, even now they’ve gone into overdrive, have ironically become the reason why more Nigerians have taken a second look at the man. In Buhari Nigerians see a figure that they can actually trust because they’ve come to see his transparent honesty. They see his lifestyle and that of those who are telling lies about him, and they know the difference. This why Nigerians will keep a date with Buhari on 14 February 2015, just like Tunisians faithfully kept a December 2014 date with the 88-year-old Beji Caid Essebsi when they proudly elected him their president because they considered the affairs of their country safe in his hands. And if Buhari derails, Nigerians will know how to deal with him. Those who are interested may want see the striking similarities between Buhari and Essebsi. As an Igbo proverb says, if the game runs in a particular way, the hunter also has to shoot it in a particular way.

Electing Buhari represents a quiet revolution for Nigerians who have been longing for good governance for a long time, even as reactionary and retrogressive interests and forces become more deeply entrenched in the country. They turn to whoever they believe, rightly or wrongly, would give it to them. That revolution was prefigured on 12 June 1993 when Nigerians from all over the country went out and cast their votes freely without molestation, and voted for a man they believed would deliver a lot of positive change in their lives. Unfortunately, that dream didn’t materialize, mostly because of lack of effective leadership. But Nigerians still kept hope alive. Nigerians also came close to this quiet revolution in January 2012 when Jonathan ‘very wisely’ thought that his New Year gift to Nigerians was to increase the price of petroleum products. That silly move quickly galvanized Nigerians who formed a movement known as Occupy Nigeria (inspired by Occupy Wall Street). Jonathan sent soldiers into the streets to mow down the peaceful demonstrators. Many were murdered. But the movement achieved a little victory in that the price of fuel was reviewed downwards. Nigerians have not really trusted Jonathan ever since. The recent minor reduction in the price of fuel is largely due to the growing influence of the opposition, buoyed by the imminent quiet revolution in the country.

What happened with the Occupy Nigeria Movement was what George Orwell would call a ‘skirmishing maneuver’ in his classic Animal Farm. It pointed to what has been brewing in the heart of Nigerians deeply dissatisfied with the status quo: They want a revolution.

Philosophers and political scientists have been debating the merits and demerits of violent and quiet revolutions. Philosophers like Friedrich Nietzsche and Georg Hegel argue that violent revolutions like the French Revolution are too violent to achieve any profound and lasting change. Such revolutions are usually born out of blind vengeance, and are more destructive than creative. As we recently witnessed in Egypt, after the furor, power usually reverts back to the oligarchs.

I find quiet revolutions more attractive. It is the type of revolution that happens first in the minds of a given people, maturing over a considerable length of time. It is the revolution in which a people’s collective mentality moves from being largely negative to being positive.

Invariably, such a revolution must have a leader, or at the very least, a figure head who can effectively galvanize the common feeling of the people.

A very good example of such a revolution is the civil rights movement in the USA, ably led by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. The Arab spring of 2010-2011 presents two different scenarios: Tunisia found a leader in the 88 (yes 88!) year-old Beji Caid Essebsi while Egypt failed to find such a leader. It’s also instructive that both El Sisi of Egypt and Essebsi of Tunisia were both part of the old order. But while the older guy in Tunisia represents change, his younger Egyptian counterpart manifestly doesn’t. Occupy Nigeria, like June 12 in Nigeria (as well as ‘Occupy Wall Street’), faltered because of lack of effective leadership. Buhari’s first attempt at a quiet revolution, like those of Sankara and Lumumba, didn’t succeed because the people were not ready yet…But Nigerians seem ready now. And if Nigerians are able to pull through with Buhari this time, they may yet lead the emancipation of the rest of Africa from mental slavery, from lack of effective leadership.

A people quietly turn to certain figures in the hour of their greatest need—if they’re lucky to have such a figure. That is what happened in Tunisia, and that is what is about to happen in Nigeria. When such times come, negligible considerations like age, religion, academic qualifications, and theatre matter not a whit to the people any more. The Tunisian guy shares some important similarities with Buhari, although Buhari would have to rule for 16 years before attaining his current age.

Nigerians who’re old enough remember what happened in the 20 months between 1984 and 1985 when Buhari was head of state. It was nothing short of a revolution. As it turns out, most Nigerians today are clamoring for that once again. Even those who were not around then, but who have heard and seen the Buhari lifestyle, are willing to trust him with their future. In a country as badly managed as Nigeria, Buhari stands out as a shining example of what is possible with a good leadership. And if he falters, Nigerians will vote him out.

2015 looks set to mark the beginning of a quiet revolution in Nigeria, if the reactionary forces in the country would allow the will of the people to prevail. Otherwise, Nigerians may have to keep another date. What shape, and under what context that might happen, I can hardly fathom. But suffice it to say that it may not be a quiet revolution, in which case the consequences are better imagined.

* Dr Uchenna Osigwe is Research Fellow, Laval University, Quebec, Canada.

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