The opposition in Nigeria: How many divisions does it have?

Winston Churchill in volume 1, chapter 8 of his book “The Gathering Storm” (1948), quoted the response of former Soviet strongman Joseph Stalin (1879-1953), to the French Foreign Minister who requested, on 13 May 1935, that the Soviet Union should encourage Catholicism so as to propitiate the pope: “The Pope? How many divisions has he got?” By division Stalin meant military divisions. Stalin was coming from a world in which might is right.

RIGGING ELECTIONS IN CHRIS UBA STYLE

When the notorious election rigger, Chris Uba, was fighting with the man he rigged in as the governor of Anambra state in 2003, he wondered aloud why he shouldn’t be allowed to reap the fruit of his ‘labor.’ Uba, whose minions call “Ochiagha” or warrior, said he thought election was like war where he who has the most arms and troops wins. He let it be known to anybody who cared to listen that he single-handedly put everyone who ran under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in power, from the governor and the house of assembly members to the senators and house of Representative members, all of them! In fact, he was so powerful that he even changed names of candidates who had already won elections so he could put in those who were more loyal to him. And he did it with impunity because he had the support of the armed forces behind him. When he couldn’t change the governor, he resorted to chasing the governor’s convoy out of the way with his own heavily armed escort. He and his goons, tacitly supported by the police, went on a rampage in the state, destroying government property worth billions, and injuring many hapless citizens. The aim was to make the state so ungovernable that Obasanjo, who was the big masquerade behind it all, would declare a state of emergency, thus effectively returning the control of the state coffers to his protégés. Luckily for Ndianambra, it didn’t work. It was the major reason why the great Chinua Achebe rejected the offer of a national honor by the Obasanjo and Jonathan regimes. Up to now nobody has asked Uba to account for that wanton destruction of public property. Instead he got promoted within the PDP to the board of trustees. Jonathan has simply taken over from where Obasanjo stopped; and has taken it to a more dangerous level. Uba is now being exported to other states to ply his rigging trade.

USING THE MILITARY AND POLICE TO ENTRENCH POWER

That Chris Uba was one of those sent to militarize the election in Ekiti state this last June, would be harrowing to those who want to see free and fair elections entrenched in the country. The military and the police were under strict orders not only to prevent the All Progressives Congress (APC) figures from entering the state but also to prevent the ruling party in the state from holding rallies. Opposition figures in the state were picked up by armed men and detained until the election was over. Meanwhile PDP goons like Uba were given free reign as they moved about with military and police escort, doing what they know best. After all, Chris Uba described elections as war! As the outgoing governor revealed recently, those armed men were given specific instructions to unleash bloodbath in Ekiti should the election not go the way of the man who sent them. Already one person was killed days before the election as a result of the fracas following the vice president’s order that the governor be teargassed during a political rally.

SENDING THE KHAKI BOYS TO EKITI

The same operation was planned to capture Edo State two years earlier, but informed sources said the big man at the palace told the president in no uncertain terms to back off. And so the PDP lost in a landslide. This time, the khaki boys were sent to Ekiti State to oversee the reverse of what happened in Edo State, or else...

But just before Ekiti, we saw the same militarization play out in Kano as the city chose its new emir. The same militarization recently played out in Adamawa. It is currently playing out in Borno State where no one, including the governor of the state, is allowed to use the airport which is under heavy military watch. But PDP goons could use the same airport. Other states will follow as the impeachment of non PDP governors gathers steam. Osun state may also go the way of Ekiti State. The soldiers are on their way.

A FORETASTE OF WHAT IS TO COME IN ELECTIONS 2015

The game plan is clear to even the most casual of observers. In Opposition one is a security risk. Once one has moved over to the PDP, s/he gets a red carpet reception. S/he becomes a first class patriot, to be protected by the military and other well-paid thugs. The 2015 general elections have already been CAPTURED, if what happened in Ekiti is any indication of how those elections will be decided. And let nobody be fooled by the so-called international community. They don’t want to risk the emergence of a truly good government in African countries, especially those with lots of natural resources like Nigeria. They don’t want a government that could possibly say no to the poisons of the IMF and the World Bank. So, let soldiers be used to rig the Nigerian elections, the ‘International Community’ will endorse the elections even before the khaki boys take off their fatigues. If in doubt remember how they ordered Abiola, the only Nigerian to have won a truly free and fair presidential election in the country, to renounce his mandate. And when he refused, they served him tea, brewed overseas! Going to the tribunal would also be a waste of time and resources given what happened to Justice Salami.

What is happening in the Nigerian presidency is a kleptocratic diarchy: the military generals are stealing as much as their civilian counterparts. The judiciary has been whipped into line and the media is under heavy assault. And hapless Nigerians remain not only increasingly impoverished but also forlorn of any hope of a meaningful government in the country in the near future.

When the kleptocratic oligarchs said they’ll rule the country for 60 years, they knew what they were talking about. And most importantly, they also know quite well that their real obstacle to fulfilling such a feat is FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS because only the select few who have cornered power are stealing the people blind while the majority of the people are being increasingly impoverished. It is then imperative that in order to achieve their aim of ruling as long as they wanted, they must disregard the people. So they started, after being jolted by Abiola’s victory, by giving themselves the power to appoint the electoral umpires, and made sure they enshrined it in their Constitution. How can an employee fire his or her employer? Then they bought off the top military and police brass. The people, as far as they’re concerned, just don’t count. The periodic elections they organize are just a façade to avoid international isolation and to continue to steal with impunity.

The ‘results’ of those elections are written in advance. In a Freudian slip, one of the OFFICIAL presidential election results of 2007 bore the date of a Sunday, more than a week before the actual election! Again, the authenticity of the materials used in elections in Nigeria has always been in doubt. As a result, free and fair elections have become the exception, not the rule.

Chris Uba wrote election results in his home, based on fake ballot papers. Peter Obi, with the help of forensic technology, was able to prove that at the election tribunal where he recovered his stolen mandate. After the 2011 presidential election, the petitioners wanted to subject INEC’s ballot papers that gave the PDP its victory to forensic test. It was because Salami wanted to allow such a test that he got illegally fired by Jonathan.

FIGHTING ELECTIONS THROUGH WAR

So, when an opposition party, no matter how large, says it’ll dislodge the PDP from the centre, the question is: How many divisions does it have? How many billions of dollars do they have? How many pliant judges does it have? How many election umpires does it have?

The situation may seem hopeless, but there is a ray of light at the end of the tunnel: Military might hasn’t made Chris Uba any less a thug than he has been all along. That he’s able to slap his toadies or fly in the most expensive private jet or travel in a convoy of a million cars cannot change that fact. Jonathan, through military might, might rule Nigeria for the next hundred years, but that wouldn’t make him any less mediocre, any less dishonest, any less a nincompoop nor any less corrupt. In fact the opposite, if history is our guide, is likely the case: military might makes those who depend on them dangerously foolish. And thus they book their place in history’s hall of shame. Power is invariably very fleeting. Those who wield brutally repressive power are invariably consumed by it. Unfortunately many of those who wield it manage to insulate themselves from that fact, inevitably to their detriment.

Any ruler that claims to be running a democratic government but uses soldiers to bulldoze his way to power is setting the stage for his or her tragic downfall. It happened most recently in 1983 when parts of Nigeria were heavily militarized in the run up to the presidential elections of that year.

The only legitimate use of political power is quality service to the people.

*Uchenna Osigwe

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