Tsvangirai’s terrifying gamble

A season of fear has returned to Zimbabwe and it is unlikely that the patchwork performed on the fraying coalition government will reverse its impact, at least not in the short run. Unlawful arrests, abductions, beatings, torture, burning of homes and yes, killings too, by Zanu PF and state agents, are again on the increase. The instigators bare their claws, threatening terror for anyone who dares to oppose them. Not that the claws were ever fully retracted; through over the past year there has been plenty of opportunity for the predator to lurk in the shadows, and sharpen them for future use. Now the time seems to have come to emerge and renew the hunt.

Just a month ago there was still a lingering hope that the coalition government could save us. As long as the political players maintained a peace, however uneasy, and the economy could achieve even the slightest forward momentum, it seemed possible that the future might promise some stability and eventually meaningful development. Difficulties continued, and the harassment of the MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) and obstruction of their policies was endemic. But as long as the three parties remained together in government, there was a chance that, little by little, enough influential Zanu PF policy-makers might begin to see a better future in co-operation than in belligerence. Events of the past month have tested these hopes, as MDC-T has wavered in the face of relentless pressure making a partial withdrawal from power sharing and turning to SADC (Southern African Development Community) for assistance. In spite of the apparent tougher stance of SADC in the Maputo meeting of the troika on defence and politics at the end of last week, few Zimbabweans put much trust in the thirty-day reprieve that has now been announced.

We need to remind ourselves of the circumstances in which this political marriage was created. After the stalemate which followed the bloody run-off ‘election’ of June 2008, SADC, represented by Thabo Mbeki, failed to point out to Mugabe that he had behaved illegally, was illegitimately remaining in power and would therefore not receive recognition and co-operation. In a remarkable disregard of their own democratic protocols, instead of demanding that the will of the majority be honestly determined and the winner endorsed, SADC insisted that the first-round winners must simply join the losers who still held the reins of power.

During the negotiations that led to the uncomfortable agreement, both sides knew that they had to participate and must not be seen as the ones to withdraw. In spite of heavy pressure from some quarters on the MDC not to enter the agreement with Zanu PF, it was clear to most Zimbabweans that there was no alternative; the MDC had to try, in order to relieve the suffering of the people and make an effort to get the country’s economy on track again after its destruction by Zanu PF. It was nevertheless also clear from the agreement made, and the final sharing of ministries, that the MDC was entering this government with very little real power. It could be assumed that Zanu PF would play hardball, co-operate as little as possible, and wield the powers they still held to buttress their own position. What was not so obvious was that Zanu PF would continue to blatantly abuse those powers in full view of the region and of the world.

Some progress in the economic sphere occurred during the first part of the year, but now it appears that Zanu PF hardliners have carried the day. Their strategy has been to continue as if nothing had changed, to harass and intimidate their MDC ‘partners’ in government, trying to provoke them into withdrawing. By using the police, the attorney general’s office, the army and the militia, they have been able to keep MDC-T on their back foot, completely off balance. The MDC-T has not found any strategic direction by which to take the contest to Zanu PF’s corner, and unsettle them as well. They put their hopes on the revival of the economy, denying Zanu PF their former sources of patronage through the RBZ, and delivering an improved standard of living for the people. But they have been blocked and outmanoeuvred at every turn. Finally their frustration grew so great that they ‘disengaged’.

MDC-T know that Zanu PF wants them out of government; they know that if they withdraw they will be walking into the trap set by the hardliners – hence their withdrawal which was not a withdrawal but a ‘disengagement’. And their prime tactic once again has been to cry to SADC to ‘do something’. The meeting in Maputo suggests that SADC may be prepared to take a harder stance than previously against Zanu PF’s intransigence, but can we expect that SADC would take effective action now, when they have done nothing for the past decade? Hopes placed on President Zuma of South Africa have not borne fruit so far and even if the Maputo language is harsher, Zimbabweans watch with scepticism to see if this time will be different.

Tsvangirai’s disengagement, though understandable in the face of such harassment, was disappointing for several reasons. In the first place, it has not been clearly understood either by Zimbabweans or by outsiders. News media refer to his ‘withdrawal’, as does Zanu PF, failing to identify the nice distinction, if there is one. Unsophisticated Zimbabweans only know that something fundamental has changed, Morgan has made a defensive move, and they are feeling the heat.

Secondly, it appears that the step came as a result of the persecution of Roy Bennett; while we know that there are many issues in dispute; the timing was certainly unfortunate as inevitably it is interpreted as being finally provoked by the Bennett issue. Bennett has suffered severely for his political career but his harassment is hardly the most critical issue for the coalition government – continuing farm invasions, rule of law, and the contest for control of finances are surely all more significant for the future of the country. The timing of the ‘disengagement’ left Tsvangirai open to Simba Makoni’s accusation that this is about ‘jobs for the boys and girls’, and has provoked the standard Zanu PF pre-occupation with race. While it is about the basics of power, others have managed to make it appear like a mere self-interested temper tantrum.

Thirdly, although economic recovery has been slow, it has gradually been occurring. The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries reported a rise in industrial capacity utilisation from around 10 per cent earlier in the year to over 30 per cent by August. Mining has picked up significantly, achieving substantial increases in output in spite of irregular power supplies. Foreign investors have been reticent, but many had re-entered the economy through purchases of shares on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. Since the working of the coalition government is critical to the revival of the economy, MDC-T’s move has already begun to scare off investors and threatens to turn the slow progress into reverse.

Fourthly, it gave the hawks in Zanu PF the excuse to go hunting again, deploying their militia, arresting, abusing, burning, raping, and intimidating with wanton abandon. In the villages, especially in Mashonaland, Manicaland and Masvingo, terror is on the increase, and on the major roads, military road blocks are everywhere.

Robert Mugabe could grandstand and plead injury – while he is attempting to implement the agreement, MDC is playing games and is not serious, ‘stepping in
and out’.

Meanwhile, the grassroots people whom the elephants are trampling are becoming desperate and devoid of hope. Very little has improved for them since February. Schools are open but education is now unaffordable for large numbers; health care is even more impossible. Economic progress has not yet had sufficient impact on people’s lives to take their vision beyond the next day or the next week. Economically viable charges for basic services – water, electricity, telephones, rates – which had not been allowed throughout the years from 2000, are necessary, but with miserably low incomes no one can pay them.

A civil servant who earns between US$150 and US$200 receives a water bill for US$15, an electricity bill for US$100, a telephone bill for US$60, and a rates bill for US$40. She has school fees to pay for two or more children, transport, food, health care, clothing to add onto that. Everyone is reeling from the repeated shocks as they sink deeper and deeper into debt, and the number of essential services beyond their reach grows. Enormous numbers of electricity and telephone connections are being terminated, and water service tips in the balance as the cholera season approaches. Furthermore, it is impossible to assist oneself by selling assets as no one has money to buy second-hand televisions, fridges, stereos, etc. Those living from rents cannot collect their rent, those selling goods cannot sell. Second hand cars are unbelievably cheap and houses on the market stand for months and years, in the absence of significant mortgage loans or the capacity to repay them even if they were there.

In the face of such daily torment people were not impressed to hear that MDC-T had ‘left’ government. What did Morgan expect next? Loose talk from some MDC members of going back for new elections are surely preposterous in the current situation. What are they dreaming of? Of course, internationally administered elections are one possible solution which should have been resorted to years ago, but who is going to undertake that delicate mission, when a UN rapporteur can be refused entry and deported from Zimbabwe?

Will the appeal to SADC bear any fruit? Past experience does not give much hope. The initial responses coming from South Africa as well as others reflected the stance of family members telling an aggrieved wife to return to an abusive marriage – that’s the way marriage is, you have to accommodate, even suffer, it’s your duty, if you try you can work it out – with complete disregard for the realities of power relationships. MDC-T was told to go back into the GNU (Government of National Unity) because there is no alternative, sent on their way by the now monotonous and self-serving, Zanu PF-inspired refrain that Zimbabweans must solve their own problems.

However, in spite of the inauspicious beginning, reports coming from the initial confidential meetings of the troika foreign ministers suggested that perhaps something more substantial might be brewing. Mugabe was reportedly told that he has not been sticking to the constitutional agreement as he claims, and he must do so. The Maputo meeting which followed the first SADC troika interventions seems even more promising. The unexpected participation of Zuma when South Africa is not a member of the troika signalled a further change in wind direction. Mugabe emerged from that meeting tight-lipped and Tsvangirai announced that he would return to full participation in government, giving Zanu PF thirty days to comply with the key issues of the agreements.

But even if Mugabe seemed chastened and disgruntled after these talks, this is his wont. When he is cornered, he makes the appropriate noises of submission or keeps quiet, only to return to defiance when the cat goes away. Unless the SADC nations accept this reality and understand that Zanu PF is not going to give up power unless they are forced to do so by whatever pressure SADC can agree to apply, they will fail to achieve any break-through in Zimbabwe.

The MDC appear to have backed themselves into a corner which may not be easy to get out of. They have agreed to try again, without any clear concessions by Zanu PF having been announced. What if the thirty days expire and nothing has changed, or if minor adjustments are made but the real issues of power are ignored? What then? Any extensions while waiting for SADC to act will only make MDC weaker. If they decide to withdraw completely, they have no alternative strategy. They cannot mobilise the people to make the country ungovernable. Not only would they be crushed by Zanu PF’s security machinery; at this stage, this would be a completely retrograde step taking the people back into total destitution and more likely creating complete chaos and disintegration of the nation. Withdrawal would leave Zanu PF the field to govern or misgovern as they wish, unleashing further terror and open looting. If SADC does not act now to put pressure on Zanu PF, will they act in a scenario of complete MDC-T withdrawal? Not likely. And then…. check mate. Checkmate not just for MDC-T, but for all of us.

The conclusion is painful. MDC-T has taken a terrifying gamble for Zimbabwe. The odds are long. If they had not taken this step the outcome might not have been any different, as Zanu PF was becoming ever bolder in their defiant rejection of their responsibilities as governing partners. But the present limbo in which we find ourselves, with a 30-day government openly divided against itself, leaves us once again facing an uncertain, possibly disastrous future. There is still room to hope for a miracle. Politicians are elected to make the impossible possible. But if Morgan Tsvangirai fails to win this gamble, Zimbabweans will have no politician to whom they can look to achieve their dreams. And the future will have fear and chaos written all over it.

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* Mary Ndlovu is a Zimbabwean human rights activist.
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