Statistics in the media: A book review

Karim Hirji, 'Statistics in the Media : Learning from Practice', Media Council of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, 2012 (www.mct.or.tz)

Karim Hirji has written an elementary text on statistics which takes as its starting point the use and abuse of numbers by journalists. Most of the examples and case studies in this book are taken from newspapers in Africa. It is of relevance to the journalistic coomunity in Africa and those interested in the critical analysis of African media.

Hirji’s argument is that there is much sloppy reporting of official statistics in newspapers and much evidence of a lack of understanding of numbers and what they mean. His method of explaining how to interpret numbers that are supplied by official agencies, whether they be examination boards, government departments or international organisations, proceeds by giving examples of journalists' reports, pointing out errors of fact and interpretation, and then explaining the concepts and methods needed to interpret the statistics properly. Throughout the book there is a persistent argument for journalists to equip themselves with a competent grasp of numeracy and a critical approach to all official statements involving numbers. Most important of all, Hirji argues for journalists to be able to have a critical understanding of the underlying social and economic framework in order to be able to put numbers in context and uncover their social, economic and political significance.

Hirji covers a wide range of topics. He starts by looking at simple questions of accurate reporting of statistical data such as the number of deaths in a shipping accident or the incidence of HIV/AIDS and the highly unlikely numbers that are given in the press and not subjected to scrutiny by reporters. He goes on to examine the way data is presented and not placed in context. For example data on examination performance is compared frequently with the previous year, but not with a succession of years which would give a much better idea of trends. He examines examples of conclusions drawn from health and crime statistics which do not take account of possible vested interests in the collection of the data. Although many of his examples are drawn from the Tanzanian press, their errors of fact and interpretation are well known to critical readers around the world. Vested interests have incentives to show that crime rates are falling or economic growth is rising. Hirji looks at some of the reporting of deaths in wars, such as those in Iraq, and the deficiencies of the numbers reported in the press. As a reminder of how numbers are used to support specific policies, we have the arguments for intervention in Syria being supported by numbers : how many people have died as a result of the use of nerve gas in Damascus ? The US administration has a precise number but the veracity of the number and the relative importance of that number as against the totality of deaths from the civil war in Syria is not reported. Hirji's chapters on neo-liberal and imperial statistics show the ways in which data is manipulated to serve the interests of the dominant powers and their agencies. In a chapter entitled 'democratised statistics', the author shows how methods of comparing standards of living through GDP can be challenged by calculations of inequality which show the degree to which growth of GDP has, or more often has not, benefited the population as a whole.

This is not a dry book about statistical methods. It is a passionate book with a clear philosophy of putting statistics in the service of true democracy and in particular in the service of the oppressed. The book does present some detail on statistical methods but in a way that with committed application by the reader, will result in a better understanding of how to present and interpret data in a critical and informed way which does not slavishly reproduce the 'official line'. The book contains a chapter of recommended reading, not just on statistics but on their interdisciplinary context, and another chapter or practical exercises designed to train critical minds and enhance numeracy. There is an appendix which gives more detail and explanation of the statistical concepts and terms used.

This timely book should be required reading on any statistics and media studies programme in African universities if not everywhere. As an accompaniment to standard statistics texts, it would act as a constant reminder to students as to the limitations of statistical methods without due regard to the socio-economic context in which the data is being collected, analysed and presented. For journalists, this book is, as it was intended to be, a constant reminder to be as accurate as possible in presenting numbers, to interrogate the data critically, and always to ask the question of whose interests are being served.

* Peter Lawrence is Emeritus Professor of Development Economics, Keele Management School, UK.

He has taught economics and development studies at the University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and the Keele Management School. He has authored numerous works dealing with Africa and development issues.

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