Ethiopia's tangled web of lies

‘Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive,’ said Sir Walter Scott, the English novelist and poet. It looks like the US of A is really in a pickle, tangled in a web of lies, deceit and diplomatic chicanery about its role and involvement in the 2006 invasion of Somalia by the dictator in Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi. The truth about the ‘fantastic Somalia job’ (invasion), as the crown prince of Abu Dhabi called it, is now coming to light in the diplomatic cables acquired by WikiLeaks, the organisation dedicated to publishing sensitive documents from anonymous sources and whistleblowers.

David Axe (Wired.com), citing WikiLeaks cables, last week argued that the US had actually hired Zenawi to ‘do its dirty work' in Somalia. Axe wrote[1]:
‘It was an off-hand compliment during a January 2007 dinner [the month following Zenawi's full scale invasion of Somalia] meeting between Abu Dhabi crown prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, plus staff, and then-U.S. Central Commander boss General John Abizaid.... “The Somalia job was fantastic,” Al Nahyan interjected…At the time of Al Nahyan's comment, the dust was just settling from Ethiopia's Blitzkrieg-style assault toward Mogadishu. Some 50,000 Ethiopian troops…had cut a bloody swath through the lightly-armed forces of the Islamic Courts Union…Washington certainly had a motive to get involved in Somalia…Already with two escalating wars on its own plate, the U.S. was in no position to openly lead its own large-scale attack on Somalia. It'd have been far simpler to simply sponsor somebody else to do the dirty work. Enter Ethiopia…All the same, evidence was mounting that the U.S. had played a leading role in the Ethiopian invasion. Journalists only strongly suspected it, but Abu Dhabi prince Al Nayhan apparently knew it for certain, if his praise of "the Somalia job" was any indication…Today, U.S. Special Forces continue to target terrorists in Somalia. There are arguably more of them than ever, thanks in part to the botched Ethiopian invasion. “We've made a lot of mistakes and Ethiopia's entry in 2006 was not a really good idea,” U.S. diplomat Donald Yamamoto said in March.’

BLOWBACK AND PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY

There appear to be two parallel cover stories invented from the beginning to explain US involvement (and alternatively, non-involvement) in Zenawi's invasion of Somalia. The first story is that Zenawi presented the US with a fait accompli (done deal) to invade Somalia. The US advised against such an invasion, but reluctantly supported it after it became clear that Zenawi's decision was irreversible. The second is what may be called the ‘throw-Zenawi-under-the-bus’ story. If there is a blowback on the US from Zenawi's invasion because of high civilian casualties, other humanitarian disasters or prolonged stalemate, the US could simply dump the entire blame on Zenawi and claim plausible deniability. In other words, ‘Zenawi did it on his own. The US had nothing to do with it. The US advised him not to invade. Blame Zenawi.’ The straight story is that the US not only supported the invasion, but was actually snagged into supporting the invasion by the clever, calculating and cunning Zenawi.

The available evidence suggests that Zenawi had been spinning his own web of deceit and lies to entangle the US in a Horn war in 2006 for two purposes: 1.) to ingratiate himself with the US and panhandle for more aid handouts, and 2.) effectively deflect criticism of his miserable human rights record in the aftermath of the stolen May 2005 elections.

In the run up to the Somali invasion, Zenawi was facing withering criticism and condemnation for his massive repression, massacres of hundreds of unarmed protesters and jailing of nearly all the opposition leaders, independent newspaper publishers, civil society leaders and human rights advocates in the country. By the Spring of 2006, an unprecedented bill was introduced in the US Congress to cut off aid to Zenawi unless he improved his human rights record. Zenawi clearly understood that significant American support was essential for the very survival of his repressive regime. Zenawi was also keenly aware of American obsession, fixation and preoccupation with Al Qaeda in the Horn. Zenawi calculated that if he could seduce and snag the US into an invasion of Somalia by presenting himself as an ‘Al Qaeda Hunter in the Horn’, he could have the best of all possible worlds. He could make best friends for life with the US and forever forestall any actions that could result in a cutoff of US aid to his regime.

The evidence suggests that to accomplish this objective Zenawi concocted ‘false intelligence’ to entice the US into supporting his invasion of Somalia by essentially sounding the siren call that will always catch America's attention: ‘The Jihadists are coming!’ On 6 June 2006, six months before the full-scale invasion that led to the siege of Mogadishu and one month before a small contingent of Zenawi's troops were sent to defend the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TGF) in Baidoa, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Herman Cohen, who incidentally facilitated Zenawi's takeover of power in Ethiopia in May 1991, shared an illuminating and well-informed insight:

‘Also, there are friends in the region, like the Ethiopians, who probably are feeding false intelligence about terrorists being hidden and that sort of thing, because the Ethiopians are deadly afraid of Moslem control and also they have their own Moslem problem among the Oromo ethnic group in Ethiopia. So they want to keep the Islamists out of power, and they will bring the U.S. into it, if they can.’

By early Summer of 2006, former Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer, who advised the US secretary of state and the under secretary for political affairs on African matters, was quietly working behind the scenes to facilitate the invasion of Somalia and spinning a web of lies and deception to conceal the nature of US involvement. By mid-July 2006, the die had been cast and the initial invasion of Somalia had occurred when Zenawi deployed a contingent of his troops to prop up the TGF.

In the preceding weeks, Frazer was priming the diplomatic circles and mollifying world public opinion by claiming that while the US does not support an invasion of Somalia, it will not allow the ‘disintegration’ of the TGF by jihadists and will ‘rally’ to support Zenawi if he were to invade[2].

A confidential UN cable obtained by Human Rights Watch indicates that in a conversation with UN officials in June 2006, US Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer noted that the situation in Somalia was 'uncertain’. According to the notes, she presented the view that Eritrea had stepped over the line and that Ethiopia viewed Eritrean action in Somalia ‘as tantamount to opening a second front against Ethiopia’. Frazer's best-case scenario was that the ICU and TFG would engage in dialogue; the worst-case scenario was the expansion of the ICU throughout Somalia and the disintegration of the TFG. Frazer noted that the latter scenario would have a major negative impact in the Horn and that the US and IGAD would not allow it. She allegedly expressed the view that while the US feared an Ethiopian intervention could rally ‘foreign elements’, the US would rally with Ethiopia if the ‘Jihadists’ took over.

By mid-December 2006, less than two weeks before Zenawi fully unleashed his ‘blitzkrieg’ on Somalia and rumbled into Mogadishu, Fraser was setting the propaganda stage to convince the world that jihadists were provoking an Ethiopian attack. The New York Times reported on 14 December 2006 that Frazer ‘said that diplomatic and intelligence officials believed that the Islamists could be trying to provoke an Ethiopian attack as a “rallying cry for support” to their side.’ On 27 December 2006, just as Zenawi's troops were storming through the desert to Mogadishu after capturing the strategic town of Jowhar 90 miles to the north, the US State Department endorsed the invasion by declaring that Islamist forces were creating ‘genuine security concerns’ for Ethiopia.

US State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said: ‘Ethiopia has genuine security concerns with regard to developments in Somalia and has provided support at the request of the legitimate governing authority, the Transitional Federal institutions.’

All along, the US had been working quietly with Zenawi providing training and military aid in manifest anticipation of the Somalia invasion. The invasion deal was sealed on 4 December 2006, when General John Abizaid, Commander of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), met with Zenawi in Addis Ababa on what was billed as a ‘courtesy call to an ally’. Following Zenawi's invasion of Somalia three weeks later, it became clear that the ‘courtesy call’ was actually ‘the final handshake’ to go forward with a full scale invasion[3]. On 8 January 2007, a little over a week after Zenawi's troops had triumphantly captured Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, USA TODAY reported[4]:

‘The U.S. and Ethiopian militaries have “a close working relationship,” Pentagon spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Joe Carpenter said. The ties include intelligence sharing, arms aid and training that gives the Ethiopians “the capacity to defend their borders and intercept terrorists and weapons of mass destruction,” he said. There are about 100 U.S. military personnel currently working in Ethiopia, Carpenter said.’
Two weeks earlier on 24 December 2006, as heavy shelling and air strikes were directed at ‘jihadist’ forces in border areas and the town of Beledweyne was being bombarded, Zenawi had described his decision to invade Somalia using almost the same words as the Pentagon. In a televised address Zenawi said, ‘Ethiopian defense forces were forced to enter into war to protect the sovereignty of the nation and to blunt repeated attacks by Islamic court terrorists and anti-Ethiopian elements they are supporting.’

By August 2007, Zenawi's troops were bogged down in Somalia and the human cost was proving to be horrendous: Tens of thousands of civilians had died and over 870,000 Somalis had been forced to flee their homes in Mogadishu alone. By then, Somalia could only be described as ‘as one of the worst humanitarian situations in Africa.’ The US could see a huge blowback heading its way; it was time to take cover. Fraser did not blink once when she threw Zenawi under the bus. She said it was all Zenawi's fault. On 6 September 2007, TIME Magazine reported[5]:

‘But, as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer has said, Washington opposed the invasion of Somalia. “We urged the Ethiopian military not to go into Somalia,” said Frazer last month. “They did so because of their own national-security interests.”’

This version of events, contrary to a common perception that the invasion was backed or even initiated by the US, is supported by accounts of a November 2006 meeting in Addis between Meles and the then head of US Central Command, General John Abizaid. Sources from both sides relate that Abizaid told Meles he was ‘not allowed’ to invade Somalia, adding Somalia would become ‘Ethiopia's Iraq’. (An official in Washington disputes the precise language, but confirms the essence of the discussion.)

Fraser repeated the same story line on 12 February 2008 when she told Newsweek Magazine[6]:

‘We told them [Ethiopia] that they should not go in. Once they went in absolutely we had to try to assist them and the [Somali] transitional federal government, which had invited them in. We support the transitional federal government and its decision to ask the Ethiopians to assist them.’

The web of lies and deception had come to a complete circle in late 2007, and the ‘fantastic Somalia job’ had managed to create a grotesque theatre of death and destruction throughout Somalia.

THE JIHADISTS ARE COMING

As many of my readers are aware, I have written extensively on the illegal invasion of Somalia on a number of occasions. I will reference three columns that I wrote on the issue. On 28 November 2006, a month before Zenawi's tanks ‘blitzkrieged’ their way into Mogadishu, I wrote a column entitled, ‘The Jihadists are Coming!’, arguing that Zenawi had fabricated the Somali jihadist threat to deflect attention from his dismal human rights record and repression and to buy the good will and diplomatic support of the US[7]:

‘But the whole jihadist business smacks of political fantasy. It's surreal. Mr. Zenawi says the Somali jihadists and their Al Qaeda partners should be opposed and defeated because they are undemocratic, anti-democratic, oppressive and authoritarian. The jihadists don't believe in human rights and do not allow political or social dissent. They are fanatics who want to impose one-party rule, and do not believe in a democracy where the people elect their representatives. Duh!!! Has Mr. Zenawi looked at the mirror lately?’

On 2 October 2008, in a column entitled, ‘The End of Pax Zenawi in Somalia’, I questioned whether the military effort to impose ‘Zenawi's Peace’ on the Somali people had finally collapsed[8]:

‘The situation in Somalia has turned Code Red. Things are deteriorating very fast for Zenawi's troops. The Al-Shabaab "jihadists" have taken over Southern Somalia, and are ravenously eyeing Mogadishu. It is no longer "hit-and-run" guerrilla warfare. It is capture-and-stay…Zenawi's forces are in full "strategic retreat" to Mogadishu. After nearly two years of intervention and occupation of Somalia, there are no signs of success; and an anniversary of total failure in the quicksand of Somalia awaits Zenawi this coming December. Could this be the end of Pax Zenawi in Somalia?’

On 3 November 2008, I followed up with another column entitled, ‘The 843-Day War’, based on a systematic content analysis of Zenawi's public statements, and laid out the intricately fabricated sophistry Zenawi had used to justify his invasion of Somalia. I concluded:

‘It appears Zenawi completely underestimated the insurgents and the Somali people and overestimated the military prowess of his troops. He really did not know the Somalis as much as he thought he knew them. He underestimated their resolve to fight a force that had invaded and occupied their country.’

UNMITIGATED CATASTROPHE IN SOMALIA

Perhaps there is nothing surprising about disclosures of the use of deceit and trumped-up intelligence by the Bush Administration to justify a proxy preemptive attack on a shattered nation that presented no credible threat to the US. The tragedy is that by the time Zenawi had announced his decision to pull out his troops by December 2008, Somalia had become an ‘unmitigated catastrophe’. According to Human Rights Watch:

‘In 2008 the human rights and humanitarian situation in Somalia deteriorated into unmitigated catastrophe. Several thousand civilians have been killed in fighting. More than one million Somalis are now displaced from their homes and thousands flee across the country's borders every month. Mogadishu, a bustling city of 1.2 million people in 2006, has seen more than 870,000 of its residents displaced by the armed conflict.’

Someone, someday will be held accountable for all of the crimes against humanity, and the Almighty one committed in Somalia. The fact of the matter is that Zenawi would never have invaded Somalia except with the blessing and full support of the US. He is too cunning, too calculating and too sly to invade Somalia all by himself and at the explicit and strong disapproval of the US, as it has been claimed by Frazer. It is interesting to note that the US has never condemned Zenawi's invasion of Somalia, despite protestations that the US had strongly advised against invasion and warned Zenawi that ‘Somalia would be Ethiopia's Iraq’. Suffice to say that the story of the Somali invasion of 2006 is akin to two spiders spinning their webs to entangle each other and suddenly finding themselves in the middle of a hornet's nest.

On 12 March 2010, former US ambassador to Ethiopia, Donald Yamamoto, said, ‘We've made a lot of mistakes and Ethiopia's entry in 2006 was not a really good idea.’ He did not clarify the nature of the ‘mistakes’. Could it be that it was ‘not a really good idea’ because the US was exposed as a not-so-silent partner in the outsourced invasion of Somalia? Or could it be that it was a mistake because the hired gun botched the Somalia job? Perhaps the US still supports Zenawi to the hilt because he did and continues to do such a ‘fantastic job in Somalia’.

As they say, ‘Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away.’ Well, it looks like Wikileaks is slowly lifting the curtain on the funny business the US and Zenawi have been doing in the dark all these years.

RELEASE ALL ETHIOPIAN POLITICAL PRISONERS.



BROUGHT TO YOU BY PAMBAZUKA NEWS



* This article first appeared on the Huffington Post.
* Alemayehu G. Mariam is professor of political science, [email protected] or comment online at Pambazuka News.

NOTES:

[1] http://bit.ly/dIP37r

[2] See ‘Shell-Shocked: Civilians Under Siege in Mogadishu,’ Human Rights Watch, Vol. 19, 12(a), August 2007, p. 22, fn. 63.

[3] http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/jan/13/alqaida.usa

[4] http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-01-07-ethiopia_x.htm

[5] http://bit.ly/gbn7MX

[6] http://www.newsweek.com/2008/02/11/fragile-institutions.html

[7] http://almariamforthedefense.blogspot.com/2006/11/jihadists-are-coming.html

[8] http://www.abugidainfo.com/?p=6175

[9] http://www.ethiopianreview.com/content/6041

[10] Human Rights Watch, ‘So Much to Fear: War Crimes and the Devastation of Somalia,’ December 2008, p.19