Elections in Tanzania: Uncertain prospects

A decade after marking the 21st century, and 15 years after embracing multipartism, Tanzania is once again gripped by election fever. The 2010 general elections, scheduled for 31 October 2010, mark a pivotal time in the country’s history. Across the country, Tanzanians will elect the union president, members of the national parliament and local government councillors, while Zanzibaris will appoint a new president, members of parliament, members of the House of Representatives and councillors.

As elections campaigns wane and Tanzanians prepare to go to the polls, they are keenly aware that at stake is the political future of the country. Their vote could redefine the political direction of the country, which critics believe has been jeopardised by the dominance of economic interests and buddy patronage pursued by the government of the incumbent candidate and ruling party.

For this reason Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete’s re-election bid for the Union presidency is the most contested both within his own ruling party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), and by the opposition since independence. This is significant considering that President Jakaya came into office with a landslide elections victory mainly from the youth vote and those Tanzanian’s hungry for a fresh page, a new order in political affairs and practice capture in his campaign slogan ‘nguvu mpya, ari mpya na kasi mpya’ (new vigour, new attitude and new drive).

Kikwete curbed all opposition by putting together an mtandao (a network) of wealthy and powerful supporters to run his campaign. Many in the opposition as well as the general populace believe that his election was determined by an unparallelled use of both public and private money. Conversely he capitalised on absurd similarities with the late Baba wa Taifa (Father of the Nation) Julius Nyerere such as the fact they both share the initials J.K. to sway public sympathy.

Lately, and following the passage of the stringent Elections Expenses Act which limits the use of money in running political campaigns, supporters of the present regime are believed to engage in sophisticated political manoeuvres to keep Kikwete’s re-election chances high. Opinion polls by two research institutions – Research and Education for Democracy in Tanzania (REDET) and Synovet – have boosted the popularity of the president. Both surveys place President Kikwete in the lead, well ahead of popular opposition figures such as Dr Silaa of Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA) or Professor Lipumba, the CUF Union presidential candidate – something academics, the opposition and concerned citizens doubt, considering the political blunders that have shaken Kikwete’s first term.

Indeed, the revelation by the media and opposition figures such as Dr Wilbroad Silaa of the use of public funds to fund the 2005 elections campaigns has made serious dents in Kikwete’s political resume and performance. While the allegations are yet to be addressed by the president or the judiciary, they continue to stain his regime. If anything, his inaction has left political ghosts out to haunt him. Chiefly, his close association with the disgraced Prime Minister Edward Lowassa has raised concern in activist and popular quarters. Recently, at a campaign rally in Hon. Lowassa’s constituency President Kikwete unreservedly endorsed his former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa praising him as having an impeccable character even though the former Prime Minister was implicated by a Parliamentary Committee in high level corruption, which allegations led to his abrupt resignation in a live televised session before the whole nation. Many expressed disbelief, anger and betrayal over the President’s insensitive utterances questioning his own integrity and commitment to upholding the rule or law.

Another political ghost lurking in his political trail is Zanzibar, the partner island state forming the other half of the union. In addition to the unresolved union issues, political forces in Zanzibar have offered an open challenge to President Kikwete who is also the chairman of the ruling CCM party. Since 2000 the ruling party in Zanzibar has been divided over the procedure for nominating candidates for the Zanzibar Presidency since the candidates are not chosen or vetoed by the Zanzibar Central Committee but before the National Central Committee, something that is seen by wakereketwa (diehard politicians) as compromising Zanzibar’s sovereignty to determine her internal affairs.

President Kikwete was forced to compromise with the opposition Zanzibar ruling party faction that supported the favourite Zanzibar presidential candidate on the CCM ticket, Dr Mohammed Gharib Bilal to appoint him as his running mate. By so doing he has announced his intention to release the former vice president, Ali Mohammed Shein who served under President Mkapa after the latter’s vice-president Dr Omar Ali Juma unexpectedly died. The appointment of Dr Bilal as Kikwete’s running mate may also signal a new dispensation between the Central CCM Ruling Committee and the Zanzibar CCM, former ASP diehards. Dr Bilal was seen to be the favourite ruling party candidate from Zanzibar during the 2000 elections for the Zanzibar presidency his dreams were cut short after the Central Committee in Dodoma interfered with the nomination process and instead nominated President Amani Karume as the presidential candidate for the ruling party in Zanzibar.

Nevertheless, by appointing Dr Bilal as his running mate, President Kikwete has weakened the ruling party’s chances to Ikulu (State House) Zanzibar since the ruling’s party presidential candidate for Zanzibar, Vice President Ali Mohammed Shein, is not as popular in the isles as the opposition candidate Seif Sheriff Hamad. It must be remembered that Seif Sheriff Hamad claims to have won all three multiparty elections but his victory was stolen by an elaborate scheme of vote theft in which opposition figures see the Zanzibar Electoral Commission and the National Election Commissions complicit.

As already mentioned in Zanzibar the presidential seat is out for grabs as President Karume’s term comes to a close and he is ineligible to contest in the 2010 elections. The coming to power of the sixth phase government of President Amani Karume in the Island was interpreted in a number of circles as ceiling the possibilities of Mwafaka (Accord), in view of the fact the main opposition in Zanzibar the Civic United Front (CUF) had refused to recognise him as the president. Nevertheless, Karume’s departure has brought tidings of hope and promise of a new political dispensation in the isles especially following the home grown political accord to unite Zanzibar and bury past differences and grudges for the interest of Zanzibar entered between himself and Maalim Hamad in late 2009.

The agreement is known as the Maridhiano ya Wazanzibari in view of the fact they were initiated by internal actors and not by external actors as was the case with past accords. While this home grown accord is credited with calming political tensions in the isles generally, it has not been well received within the ruling party in the isles. Members are already fragmented over the union question, and this accord exposes new divisions over the possibility of CCM Zanzibar sharing a government since the accord calls for the formation of a government of national unity: There is a possibility that CCM could be the minority party in the legislature.

Initial reactions of the accord were mixed. Political cynics vie the accord between President Karume of Zanzibar and Seif Shariff Hamad, the CUF secretary general, as a strategy to protect the president against prosecution for excesses committed during his rule. CUF members thought that their secretary general, Maalim Seif, hungry for power, had betrayed them and the principles they stood for. Smaller political parties also forming the opposition in Zanzibar were at a loss contemplating what the recent development meant for their own survival. As for the majority of the population, they try to keep up with the fickle political terrain praying for calm and sense to prevail.

Certainly, as President Karume steps down, such an accord accentuates the leadership tussle in the ruling party in the isles. CCM hardliners accuse the Zanzibar president of departing from CCM policy outlined at Butiama in March 2008, with respect to the future of the Zanzibar Political Accord (Mwafaka III). The CCM National Executive Committee had recommended that the option of forming a government of National Unity in Zanzibar be decided by a referendum which took place in July 2010. Many supported the idea. It must be emphasised that CCM’s call for a referendum to determine the political fate of Zanzibar, was unilateral as it did not form part of the original points of negotiations in the 14 month uninterrupted Mwafaka talks between CCM and CUF.

The basic agreement between President Karume and Seif Sheriff Hamad to begin a new chapter in the isle’s politics has pulled Zanzibar out of a political abyss and radically changed the political dynamics in the isle. Election rallies are more subdued than in past elections. It is common to see on the street of Zanzibar posters from both CCM and CUF on one wall or pasted on the same vehicle. There is also fewer presence of militia from political parties and past threats such as explosions, acid attacks and house burnings are considerably reduced in these elections.

Nevertheless, the main challenge remains ahead: The formation of a government of National Unity. There are mixed opinions on whether the present constitution in Zanzibar allows for the same. Notwithstanding, Article 9(3) of the Zanzibar Constitution encourages the revolutionary government to promote a government of national unity.

The idea of forming a government that promotes national unity in Zanzibar is, however, not novel. In the run up to Zanzibar’s independence, the political reality was such that two or more parties had to form a coalition government to obtain the necessary majority to govern. It is a coalition government that steered Zanzibar to independence.

The fear in adopting this route where CCM and CUF are political bedfellows is that other political parties which presently have failed to make it into the Zanzibar legislature will be further marginalised. If anything such an arrangement will amplify the dominance of CCM and CUF in Zanzibar’s new political landscape.

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* © Salma Maoulidi
* Salma Maoulidi is a social justice and gender activist in Tanzania.
* Please send comments to [email protected] or comment online at Pambazuka News.

REFERENCES

The Constitution of Zanzibar 1984
Sherrif, Abdul & Jussa, Ismail, (2009), One Step Forward, Two Steps Backwards: The State of Constitutionalism in Zanzibar-2007 in Wanza Kioko CONSTITUTIONALISM IN EAST AFRICA: PROGRESS, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS IN 2007, Kampala: Fountain Publishers pp.75-98
Peter, C.M, & Othman, H., (2006) ZANZIBAR AND THE UNION QUESTION ZANZIBAR, Zanzibar: Zanzibar Legal Services Center Publication Series, Book No. 4
Hilal K. Sued, ‘Can luck save the Isles the fourth time?’ The African, 26 September 2009
Issa Yussuf, ‘Isles reconciliation efforts win more hearts in Zanzibar’, Daily News, 24 December 2009.
Jabir Idrissa, ‘JK angalia boriti jichoni mwako’[J.K beware of the log in your eye], Mwanahalisi, 7-13 October 2009 at 13
‘CCM yafikiria mseto Zanzibar’ [CCM thinks about a coalition in Zanzibar], Majira, 26 September 2009.
‘Opposition leader to present private motion for amendment of Articles 39, 42 and 61of Zanzibar constitution to allow formation of government of national unity’, Mwananchi 19 January 2010.