21st century Middle East: New transnational jihad or sheer terrorism?

In the late 1980s, the Muslim faith in Britain was seen as a beautiful and exotic religion, with mosques almost being seen as part of the attraction sites in the British capital. In those days, I saw retired American tourists angled from side to side to perfect pictures of Regent’s Park Mosque while curiously wondering what could possibly be inside that fascinating golden dome on the base of the fine minaret. A decade later, the West’s relationship with the Muslim religion has taken a dramatic turn for the worse, reaching new heights after the 9/11 attacks on America. But why did this happen in a very short period of time?

While violent acts in the West can be classified as terrorism, I am quite unsure of what to call the massive and violent social upheaval that is taking place in the Muslim world, particularly in the Middle East. In fact what we are witnessing in the Arab world right now is a radical social transformation in the form of Jihad. And without successfully finding solutions to the current mayhem, what takes place amongst the world’s 1.8 billion Muslim population is bound to have an effect on all of us. Be prepared. This particular jihad movement has other dimensions, which include acts of terrorism, small-scale genocides and other human rights abuses. Pockets of non-Arab societies - mainly in Africa – are also experiencing similar crisis.

THE RESPONSE

Our response in dealing with the new phenomena has so far been disproportionate and inadequate in equal measure. Scramble for fighter jets, panic among law enforcement agencies and the rush to introduce new legislations has been the order of the day for Western authorities since September 11, 2001. As a result of the lack of well-informed knowledge to the root cause of the problem, panic can be best described in the actions taken so far by the Western governments. Recently, for example, the British government announced that jihadists would be prosecuted and passports of those travelling abroad to fight in jihad would be revoked. The Border Control Agency is on the lookout for would-be jihadists at all points of departure and surveillance is expected to increase towards Muslim communities, with schools and universities topping the list.

British Prime Minister David Cameron also announced that new legislations were to be introduced to deal with the heightened threat of home-grown extremism. What has changed? Discovering a laptop belonging to members of IS, who were reportedly planning to acquire chemical weapons, does not produce concrete evidence. We all know that the Islamic State group is contemplating some sort of attack to targets in Europe and elsewhere in the West. It is a wise thing to be on the lookout for terror related activities, but had we not been alert all along to ward off an Islamist terror attack?

I do not believe that the IS group poses immediate threat to Britain and anywhere else outside of the Middle East. Was the prime minister preparing the population for an upcoming military action in the Middle East, I wonder? In fact, what is happening in the Middle East at this stage is not about preparations for attacks on the West. This is not IS’s priority right now. Local scores need to be settled first before jihad could be taken elsewhere. In fact, the IS has plenty on its hands at the moment and is busy capturing more territory; perhaps it wants to expand into Saudi Arabia, Jordan or Lebanon. What the Islamic State group is really after is to become self reliant in terms of arms, equipment and financial resources.

One of IS’s primary goals is to control the Middle East oil installations, not only in Iraq and Syria but elsewhere in the region too. Unlike Al Qaeda, IS is highly ambitious and needs to run countries before expanding into international terror campaigns. There are signs of this already happening. Do not forget that IS is in competition for the region with the West as it believes that the Arab and Muslim resources are rightfully theirs. IS has already made in-roads as far as Northern Nigeria where Boko Haram declared similar entity last week in Nigeria’s caliphate state. A caliphate in Africa? I see an Arab signature here.

Meanwhile, the debate continues on television and in the press. Depressingly though, most of those invited to comment on issues relating to extremism seem to miss the point, derailing efforts to pinpoint a new strategy to tackle the problem. I watched a live BBC interview this week where Paul Bremer, the architect of the Iraq fiasco was the guest Remember him? On his arrival in Baghdad in early 2003, Bremer, who was then George Bush’s de facto governor in Iraq, single-handedly disbanded Saddam Hussein’s disciplined army, unleashing chaos across much of the country. Surprisingly, most commentators both in the press and on television were almost exclusively South Asian, who explained Arab jihad to the confused British populace. For your information, the Quran is not written in Urdu or Punjabi and although South Asians make up the majority of the Muslim community in Britain, Arabs are also present in large numbers. Have there been any efforts to find the whereabouts of those who could have been helpful in explaining the problem in greater detail? I doubt.

In the conflict zones, some UK MPs were visiting the Kurdistan area of Iraq last week and were running regular commentary on British television, with strong endorsement for the need to arm the Peshmergas, the Kurdish militia. Many observers believe that this is already taking place, but what do we really know about Kurdish Iraq? Chatting with my local Kurdish shopkeeper yesterday, I was shocked to learn that some groups in Kurdistan discreetly support the Islamic State group. ‘In Halabja city, they put up the black flag of IS in the night and they change to the Kurdistan flag in morning. This is true and you can find more information from people in the city; nobody like Shia people in Baghdad (sic)’, he told me.

It is obvious that the Kurds are soliciting for some sort of support from the West in their bid for independence. This, however, should not appear like we are arming one group against the other in a hotly contested conflict. Whatever their motives are in seeking support from the West, the Kurds are not from Mars; they lived side by side with the Arabs – both Shias and Sunnis - for thousands of years, sharing with them every single Abrahamic religion the world has seen. So let us watch out for the pitfalls ahead.

Western government officials, including Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, ruled out an alliance with President Bashar Al Assad of Syria. Why? I am not in favour of the Assad regime but what are the workable alternatives? Free Syrian Army? FSA are an exclusively Sunni group with many in rank and file having sympathy for IS. Just wait until they get to Damascus. At some point we will have to choose between a rock and a hard place. Speaking at a White House press conference, President Barack Obama conceded that he had no strategy on Syria, except of course that he would not collaborate with Assad to deal with the IS threat. How on earth can we have similar objectives to that of the Islamic State? The IS is fighting against Assad; actually they want to overthrow him. Do we really want to defeat the deadly threat that has helped IS to overrun huge swaths of territory in the Middle East or is our priority still to export democracy? Of course we just tried that in Libya and failed big time.

What is happening in the Middle East at this stage is not about preparation for attacks on the West. This is not IS’s priority right now. Local scores need to be settled first, before jihad could be taken elsewhere. What is playing out before our own eyes is a biblical competition between Shias and Sunnis (Kurds included). And do not forget, the Kurds are majority Sunni too. Actually, it is not far before the Kurds and the Sunni Arabs forge alliance against the Shia-led government in Baghdad. Historically, even before 2003, most observers knew that at some point in the near future, things in the Middle East were bound to fracture and whatever hand we played in all of this, that process would be here to stay, perhaps for decades to come.

As in the former USSR satellite states of Eastern Europe in the late 1980s, once you disturb an established system, you must expect the unknown. Well, the Eastern Europeans chose democracy and things moved forward for them but as Islam runs Arab lives to the bone, their journey appears to be through Jihad. Do we know which way they are heading? Look no further than Egypt, Arab world’s most sophisticated nation. In 2011, protesters overthrew Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s secular dictator. What followed was the temporary end to military rule in Egypt in June 2012 that stunned the world: Islamists immediately took over in what was a free and fair election that froze Western leaders in their seats. In fact, it was the first time since Algeria 1999 that Western leaders questioned - against their principles - the possibility of a democratic process in the Arab world. A year since Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, the Egypt’s military strongman, called for elections (and self-declared the winner), the country now stands somewhere between the military and the unknown.

Furthermore, if Western intelligence agencies were not able to predict and communicate information to governments with the emergence of the new jihad in Iraq and Syria, how could we trust them with analysis of what the solution to a future problem would be? Many of those who prepared the famous dossier about the unfounded Iraq WMD for Tony Blair in 2002 still possibly work for MI6.

WESTERN JIHADISTS

Western jihadists are using the conflict largely as a platform to vent their anger on a system they perceive as having rejected them rather than sharing an ideology with the Arab Middle East populace in which they understand very little about. Most think that there would be a smooth takeover of what they believed to be an Islamic caliphate, a place that is more comfortable for them than in the English Midlands and the lands of non-believers. However, the real stories that these young Westerners are discovering on arrival at the ground and the actual events that they have witnessed during operations are very different.

Calls to prosecute anyone travelling to either Iraq or Syria are counter-productive. Social work programmes should be part of the intelligence gathering process to try to prevent extremism, without bragging about what may or may not happen to us in the tabloid papers. Responsibility and better governance must not be undermined. Referring to Jihadi John who beheaded the American journalist, James Foley, Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, stated: ‘someone to come along with a bunker buster and kill the man, reported to be British, as fast as possible (sic)’. These are the words of an irresponsible individual rather than the words of a big city mayor who is personally touched by the gruesome murder of the helpless journalist. In fact such statements are adding fuel to the carnage, convincing many young people both at home and abroad that there would be no turning back and hence resolves to harden their attitudes about jihad.

MUSLIM LEADERS

When confronted for answers, Muslim leaders should abandon their defensive positions and come forward to contribute to the debate honestly and truthfully. These are very serious issues, which require scrutiny at all levels of society. And perhaps, the Muslim community leaders may get ahead of the authorities in finding solutions to the problem. Underlying issues must also be understood and addressed. I am not convinced that the bright twin Somali sisters from Manchester chose Jihad in Syria rather than the one in Somalia on their own accord or with a well thought out plan. Who were the girls running from? Were they escaping their own parents who, perhaps, coerced them to an upcoming arranged marriage? We need to closely study the individual cases; part of the solution may lie there. In my understanding, some of the reasons that young Muslims go to jihad in the Middle East and other jihad hotspots are due to feelings of dissatisfaction with both their community’s and the West’s way of life. We need to know why in order to confront it head-on.

The Muslim Council of Britain and others who claim to represent the Muslim community should say more. Repeating that the Muslim faith is a peaceful religion is not enough. We also need more Arab academics to appear on our television news bulletins to air their views. Equally, politicians should tone down the rhetoric for the need of more legislation with increased punishments designed specifically for would be jihadists. We already have enough laws to address the problem. What is lacking though are effective prevent strategies. Are we using the right expertise? What are the differences between the South Asian and Arab narratives when it comes to modern jihad? These scenarios need to be looked at and tackled.

Meanwhile, let us briefly revisit the Trojan horse saga and what happened in the city of Birmingham earlier this summer. Michael Gove, the then education secretary swiftly drafted investigators to several schools in the city, suspending the education and other activities of hundreds of impressionable Muslim boys and girls. The manner in which that action was taken by the government, moving-in early morning without warning, will have an impact on children’s psyche for many years to come. These children saw the government move as war being declared on their community. Surely there were other ways to find out wrong doings without shutting down school activities; and for that matter, without the frenzied tabloid fun fair that continues to this day. This kind of action is going to have a negative impact on young people with feelings of otherness.

And what happened to these kids and their parents after returning to resume their studies? The children and their parents in the city had to face the camera crews and reporters outside school gates, filming and interrogating them. One mother told Channel 4 News: ‘what is the point of us trying to integrate; every time we do we’re somehow told it is not good enough, or we’re not getting it right. What happens when they (the children) go for a job, or try to get work experience, and employers read that they’re from one of these so-called extremist schools?’ The frustration expressed by this mother is a part of widely held views by the Muslim community in Britain and it needs to be addressed.

By the way, who are the Western jihadis? Both sides of the argument must be very careful as we know very little about what a future Jihadi might look like. In fact he can be called Richard Reed (remember the shoe bomber) in a previous life or as in the case of Douglas McArther McCain, may have been brought up by an all American family in the town of New Hope, Minneapolis. McCain died in Syria this week while his best friend and classmate - another all American jihadist called Troy Kastigar - lost his life in Mogadishu in 2009 while fighting for Al Shabab.

Whichever angle we look at strategies to defeat the new worldwide jihad movement, one thing is for sure: we are in an uncharted territory. And what would my solution to the problem be? Look beyond spooks and self-appointed experts who are running havoc in our world.

As I pulled the door handle to exit the shop, my local Kurdish shop keeper whispered in a low voice: ‘I have heard that thousands are going to Iraq and Syria from destination across Europe; do not believe the small numbers that you hear from television news.’ I halt at the step to listen a bit more to what he had to say. And he adds: ‘do you know that ISIS has drones too?’

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