Texas in Africa provides an eyewitness account from a source in Abidjan:

‘I don't know about if this will be technically genocide, but an aspect that is being missed is that the pro-Gbagbo camp is not in control of anything right now. The armed forces on the street are FRCI and civilians they have armed and they are extracting revenge at an alarming rate. The FDS and Gbagbo forces that are armed are mostly contained and surrounded by ADO forces in one or two tiny parts of the city. The FRCI have been looting our district like mad and banging on our door regularly trying to get inside since this morning. They have a roadblock set up right outside our gate. They completely looted many of our neighbors and are burning houses to the ground in retaliation. Ouattara has no control over many of them anymore at all. There is no central command. A prison was opened yesterday morning and all the 5,000 prisoners freed and armed many who then took revenge on the population...

‘If it is to be genocide here, I think it will now be from the FRCI side, as Ouattara has no control and many Dioula are angry and wanting revenge. The French and UN are basically saying they can't help a lot of people anymore. Many are dying right now. We have heard sustained gunfire since 5am yesterday morning. There have been [shell explosions">, RPGs and mortars heard as well fairly regularly. We also heard heavy bombing most of the day today from the downtown region, where they are attacking Gbagbo's palace.

‘Our water has been cut, and our power is intermittent. We have enough supplies for several months and are hiding out in a barricaded room in our house in darkness.

‘I hope that this insanity ends soon. It is absolute anarchy here right now.’

A number of comments in the comments section questioned the accuracy or neutrality of this eyewitness account. As one commentator put it:

‘I agree with those who say that this account sounds like it comes from a Gbagbo supporter (LMPiste). This is not to say s/he is inventing. It's just to say that I think the situation on the ground is very confused right now, because there are multiple actors: (a) organized fighting force of Gbagbo, former FDS, etc; (b) Youth militias of Ble Goude; (c) released prisoners, whom ADO's government says were released & armed by Gbagbo; (d) the FRCI (national army) & (e) IB and his ‘commando invisible’ which is not connected to any politician. I have heard widespread reports of Gbagbo supporters putting on FRCI t-shirts and masquerading as FRCI. It's a confusing and horrifying situation.’

Chris Blattman provides yet another eyewitness report about the situation in Abidjan which demonstrates how difficult it is to get reliable on-the-ground reports:

‘I’ve talked to several folks in Abidjan today, and they paint a relatively different picture of Abidjan from the one that you just retweeted from @texasinafrica (“pure anarchy”) – even the ones living close to Gbagbo’s residence. They say that most people are staying home but that they are able to move through the streets a bit to get to shops, etc. There are gunshots being heard with some regularity, although not in all neighborhoods. Perhaps I’m just clinging to hope against hope, and obviously this is a very awful situation, but their general feeling is that this siege is going much better than would have been expected.’

Chris adds in the comments section that:

‘If there’s one theory of mass violence I believe, it’s what economists call the “security dilemma”, also known as “mutual fear”. Essentially, one side worries that the other side is going to commit violence, and so begins to consider a preemptive attack. The other side, knowing that the other side believes this, also begins to fear attack and so begin to mobilize as well. The other side, knowing that the other side thinks that their side is going to… You get the idea.

‘Escalating fears and violence thrive in low information environments. Explosive rumor is the greatest ally. The killing becomes self-fulfilling.

‘I’m only suggesting that bloggers and commenters don’t become part of the problem.’

Foreign Policy Blog’s Elizabeth Dickinson warns against the fog of war and points out that all parties in the Ivorian conflict have committed atrocities:

‘And to be clear: that's guns on all sides.

‘There's been a tendency -- an understandable one -- to single out Gbagbo for the atrocities that his troops have committed. As the obstinate one in this political crisis, it's Gbagbo who is under sanction by the West and who the African Union is calling upon to step down. It's Gbagbo whose forces fired upon and killed protestors, vividly captured on YouTube... And so naturally, it's Gbagbo who most people expect to end up in the International Criminal Court, paying for his crimes...

‘But it's important not to forget that Ouattara-loyal forces are also fighting. And on the battlefield, there's always a risk that atrocities could be committed. Reuters reports that Ouattara-loyal forces have remained disciplined so far, though they have executed some Gbagbo militiamen, according to Human Rights Watch. And yesterday, the United Nations called on Ouattara to "rein in" his forces as they take final control in Abidjan....

‘The fog of war clouds everything for the moment; it's impossible to tell who is responsible for what -- and against whom. But it's important to look at all sides of the fighting, because when the dust settles, Cote d'Ivoire is going to be torn apart. Civilians of all political persuasions are going to have horror stories to tell. And if only half the perpetrators are selectively brought to justice, it will be no justice at all; a society divided cannot be stable for long.’

Penelope M.C. compares the situation in Abidjan to the one that prevailed during the 2003 siege of Monrovia in Liberia:

‘For all the differences between the two conflicts, Laurent Gbagbo’s desperate hold on power is profoundly reminiscent of Charles Taylor’s in Liberia. Like Taylor, Gbagbo has his most loyal men controlling key areas, while he continues to sit in the presidential palace. Monrovia’s unique geography played into the hands of advancing rebel forces, who were able to isolate Taylor in the center of Monrovia by taking over bridges leading into the city. In Abidjan, the layout is different, but, similarly to Monrovia, there are islands and bridges, which are strategically important in urban warfare – whoever gains control of access routes has the advantage. The airport, which is currently controlled by UN and French forces, is on an island. The presidential palace sits on a peninsula.

‘I don’t know how long this siege will last. Gbagbo will not step down, and will not leave easily. The best case scenario is that he’s currently negotiating exile conditions in a third country and will get airlifted with his family. Worst case scenario is that the presidential palace where he sits is stormed by rebels and he is killed. At this stage, I’d say both of these possibilities are equally as realistic.

‘It’s our responsibility to bear witness to what is happening in Cote d’Ivoire now. Unspeakable crimes have already been committed by both sides of the conflict, and will continue to happen. Media and public attention are not silver bullets, but along with the real threat of prosecution, may help attenuate the levels of violence. At least, that is my hope.’

Nnenna explains how the #CIV2010 Twitter hashtag, originally created to monitor the 2010 presidential elections in Cote d’Ivoire, ended up being a virtual war zone, a ‘hate-tag’ used by the different factions of the ongoing Ivoirian crisis to settle scores:

‘The tag was kicked off on Twitter around October 2010. The idea was to get citizens interested in the upcoming elections to use it. So we used it as a monitoring tag for the campaigns and all the surrounding issues of the first presidential elections in the Ivory Coast. Having been there from the beginning, I must say, I enjoyed the early days of #civ2010...

‘The climax was the Thursday of the face to face debate of the 2 candidates of the run off. Allasane Dramane Ouattara, ADO for short, and Laurent Koudou Gbagbo, LKG for short. I do recall tweeting the whole of the debate, directly from the French that came out of their mouth into English, the whole 3 hours 13 minutes that it lasted! I also recall Twitter had to quarantine some of the heavy tweeple of #civ2010. My Twitter embargo was lifted after 10 hours!...

‘Then the run off on November 28… and the “the walls came tumbling down”. What a great transformation of the tag. It has gone from citizen watch and reporting space to a kind of association of folks who have something in common: someone or something they hate! Granted, the war is raging on the streets of Abidjan, but the war on Twitter is equally viral…

‘Nobody can say for sure how long the war in Abidjan will last. Neither can we say for sure who will come out having lost the least (since I personally don’t believe that anyone will come out a winner). The greater question that is looming larger by the day is: what do you with all these negative sentiments? How do you rebuild trust, acceptance and love? Is it possible? How long will it take? When will it begin..?’

Craig Murray argues that Cote d’Ivoire is in dire need of a transcendent ‘healing figure’ because Ouattara and Gbagbo have become lightening rods and divisive figures who’re unfit to rule:

‘In the short term, military force might be able to install Ouattara as President of Ivory Coast. But the ethnic and religious divisions of the civil war have been reopened, and deepened. Ivory Coast desperately needs a healing figure, somebody who is not Ouattara or Gbagbo. Having been imposed on Abidjan by force, Ouattara will only stay there by force. The future looks bleak…

‘Many thousands have been killed in the last week. The massacre of 800 civilians at Duekoue is only the worst individual event. It was carried out by fighters from the old LURD camp in the Liberian civil war, brought across the border by Ouattara with French money. That money has also brought in Burkinese and Senegalese fighters for Ouattara.

‘This is a tragedy for Africa, because it devalues democracy… Somehow the UN and the international community find themselves in the position of imposing by force, fighting alongside the perpetrators of massacre, the “democratically elected” victor. This denigrates democracy.

‘Nor should it be forgotten that Gbagbo’s forces had been responsible for plenty of killing of innocent civilians, particularly among the Ouattara minority in Abidjan itself. The international community should declare that both men have shown they are unfit to rule, and disqualify both from new elections.’

The BBC’s Andrew Harding blogs from Abidjan about a city in the throes of pain as it awaits the denouement of the Gbagbo-Ouattara confrontation:

‘A negotiated ending might have helped ease tensions in this bitterly divided country. After all, Mr Gbagbo won 46% of the vote in the recent election.

‘But he seems to have over played a weak hand, and so a more forceful denouement beacons, and with it the real risk of greater instability.

‘What will his militias do if Mr Gbagbo is killed, or dragged out and humiliated?

‘Yesterday I drove a few miles through the city suburbs. Small groups of civilians were half trotting along the side of the road arms raised as if in surrender. They were, they said, risking the bullets and the looters to search for water and food.

‘The stench of dead bodies, littering the sides of the road, is a powerful reminder of the price this city has paid for the "restoration of democracy".

‘What new horrors will we uncover if and when the city is finally pacified?’

BROUGHT TO YOU BY PAMBAZUKA NEWS

* Dibussi Tande blogs at Scribbles from the Den.
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