The people of Zimbabwe go to the polls today in a parliamentary election that should tell us something about the power balance in the country that was once a bright star but is now a metaphor for broken dreams and a continuing nightmare both for its people and other Africans.

The 'something' may not be a lot because I do not think that this election will give us an adequate reading of the real state of things. The government sees only victory and the opposition envisages an unfair defeat.

The stand-off between the main opposition, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the consequent pariah status of the country has paralysed the country for almost a decade now.

It is impossible to think of a final peaceful settlement or a way out of the impasse with Mugabe still at the helm of affairs. As I argued on a CNN interview yesterday the septuagenarian ex-Comrade is no longer part of the solution but central to the problem.

However, we all have to banish thoughts of hoping that the old man would do the decent thing and step aside for the sake of his party, country and people. His rhetoric on the campaign trail and belligerent tones do not indicate that Uncle Bob is for turning. He has developed a siege psychosis, grandiose paranoia and neo-fascist mentality which make him see all opponents whether within his party, the government or in the country, as traitors. He believes he is Zimbabwe and Zimbabwe is his. Having been in power for 25 years, Mugabe and his cohorts cannot imagine themselves ever losing power.

Therefore, ZANU (PF), at least the president's main faction of it, will do whatever is possible (both thinkable and unthinkable) to 'win' this election. Intimidation, brazen bribery, manipulation, and whatever tricks in the books of electoral brigandage have been deployed to ensure only one outcome - ZANU (PF) victory.

But this victory will be at an even greater cost this time given the level of dissent in recent months at the very heart of the ZANU (PF) elite itself.

Mugabe is not just fighting 'the MDC kids' but also many of his formerly loyal 'good boys' and veteran geriatrics, including former ministers and top commanders. While the party may lose a few seats to its latest ex-ZANU opposition, this may not be enough to unsettle the regime because they may not translate into more seats for the main opposition, MDC.

The MDC is likely going to hold on to its support base despite all the stratagems of Mugabe's storm troopers and routine violence and intimidation from both the state and its freelance militias.

The European Union has already declared the election a sham. The US government has also been blowing hot on Zimbabwe. Quite ominously both SADC and the AU have not been too vocal beyond expressing pious hopes that there will be free and fair elections and making an appeal to both sides to give peace a chance.

African leaders are really on a tight rope over Zimbabwe because of the racialist overtone of the issues. None of them want to be seen as agents of the West and White interests. Many of them (like other Africans), who may not necessarily agree with Mugabe, are however convinced that the land issue needed to be addressed. So whatever they do, they are damned. But all these have no impact on Zimbabwe. Indeed the more Europeans and Americans make a noise about Mugabe, the better for him to be casting himself as a Pan-Africanist David against Imperialist Goliath, and his domestic opponents, both MDC and non- MDC, as puppets of the West.

For Africans, both on the continent and in the diaspora the one-sided spectacles help make us either more understanding or ambiguous or apologetic (as many have become) towards the old man. On the other hand, MDC's links with largely white farmers and its popularity with anti–Mugabe Westerners make it suspect to many Africans.

There is a very strong hangover of cold war era ideology watered by contemporary Western inconsistency and brazen hypocrisy that makes many Africans instinctively suspect any African leader liked by the West while adulating the one that is hated by them.

Even those who look at the mass base, especially organised largely black working class, urban poor and progressive middle class support for the MDC, are also wary of its ambiguity on a number of key issues about the economy and reconstruction of Zimbabwe after Mugabe. There are fears that an MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai will just be an imitation of the tragedy of yet another populist trade unionist, one Frank Chiluba, in neighbouring Zambia.

However, there is a principle that should guide all of us about Zimbabwe or any other country for that matter - the supremacy of the will of the people, freely expressed, without let or hindrance. If they choose puppets or dimwits, it is their right to do so and they will have another opportunity at the next election to change their minds. It is a right that cannot and should not be ceded to or usurped by a self-serving elite for its perpetuation in office. No leader or party owns the people. Voting wisely is as important as voting unwisely if they so choose!

* Dr Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem is General-Secretary of the Pan African Movement, Kampala (Uganda) and Co-Director of Justice Africa

* Please send comments to