The 25th May commemorates “Africa Liberation Day” on the African continent. This year marks 51 years since the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) was founded on 25 May 1963. It also marks 5 years since the passing of Dr. Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem, a regular Pambazuka News columnist and Pan-Africanist who ironically and tragically died in Nairobi on 25 May 2009. This special issue seeks to honour these important landmarks as well as reflect on the next 50 years of Africa’s development in the light of the recent African Development Bank’s 2014 annual meeting which was themed: “The Next 50 Years: the Africa We Want” and the African Union’s (AU) Agenda 2063. In terms of development, it should not just be conceived of in wholly economic and technological terms in the narrow Western-centric obsession with “economic growth” and “GDP” outcomes, but development must encompass the cultural, political, social, psychological, ecological, intellectual potentials of African people and her Diaspora, that must be integral to new definitions and achievements in a development that is entirely people-orientated and people-led.

Agenda 2063 was conceived by representatives of the African Development Bank, the African Union Commission (AUC), the Economic Commission for Africa and the New Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) Secretariat in June 2013 and claims to focus on Africa’s development in the next 50 years. “Agenda 2063 is both a vision and an Action Plan. It is a call for action to all segments of African society to work together to build a prosperous and united Africa based on shared values and a common destiny.”[1] According to the AUC: “It represents a collective effort and an opportunity for Africa to regain its power to determine its own destiny, and is underpinned by the AU Vision to build an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, an Africa driven and managed by its own citizen and representing a dynamic force in the international arena.”[2] The AUC calls for “stakeholders” such as women, youth, academics, farmers, CSOs, to be involved at all stages of the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the Agenda across a time span of 25year, 10 years and 5 years. It states:

“The overall objective of the Agenda 2063 exercise is to develop a plan which will chart Africa’s
development trajectory over the next 50 years. Agenda 2063 will clearly delineate the roles of each
stakeholder such as RECs, Member States, Civil Society and private sector. It will benefit from experiences of previous plans such as the Lagos Plan of Action, the Abuja Treaty and NEPAD etc.
It is expected that a dedicated implementation of the plan will significantly transform the continent.”[3]

WILL AGENDA 2063 BE “A NOVEL DEVELOPMENT MODEL FOR AFRICA?”

The AUC claims that “this new effort to envision Africa’s long-term development strategy is a novel development model for Africa” and is timely because of the “changing global context” in which “African economies now have in place sound macro-economic and market-oriented economies which have spurred growth, trade and investment expansion.” [4] The AUC seeks to continue “building on the NEPAD experience” as well as continuing to foster a climate for “new development and investment opportunities for Africa.”[5] As ALEX LENFERNA points out in his article in this special issue, if the development models Africa aspires to are focused on extractive plunder and pillage in economic growth at all costs, the environmental damage will undoubtedly continue in the next 50 years with its negative consequences on the lives of African people.

Hence, a fundamental reservation in the conception of Agenda 2063 is the unquestioning acceptance of market driven strategies and solutions. For example, the AUC calls for “improved flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)”[6] which largely underpin paradigms of neoliberalism that has bedevilled the African continent in the last 50 years. Unhindered market fundamentalism will continue to be detrimental to a future Africa along with land leases or “land grabs” that trample over the rights and food security of African people. Organised resistance to these forms of exploitation will undoubtedly occur in the next 50 years.

WHAT ARE THE CONSTRAINTS ON AFRICA’S FUTURE DEVELOPMENT?

Several of our contributors such as CHIKA EZEANYA, NKOSAZANA DLAMINI ZUMA, MOTSOKO PHEKO and ANTOINE ROGER LOKONGO are positively optimistic on Africa’s future and potential for economic development, whilst other writers are more sober and realistic in their reflections. Among these are ALEMAYEHU MARIAM, MARK ABDELSAYED et al, THEOGENE RUDASWINGA and CHRISTOPHER ZAMBAKARI. Writers such as JOSH MYERS and CHIKA EZEANYA emphasize that if Africa is to rise economically, the continent must cease imitating Western-centric models and thought patterns and genuinely engage in indigenous cultural and technological knowledge production. It was Frantz Fanon who prophetically proclaimed as far back as 1961 these words that ring true today:

‘…the European game has finally ended; we must find something different. We today can do everything, so long as we do not imitate Europe, so long as we are not obsessed by the desire to catch up with Europe. Europe now lives at such a mad, reckless pace that she has shaken off all guidance and all reason, and she is running headlong into the abyss; we would do well to avoid it with all possible speed. Yet it is very true that we need a model, and that we want blueprints and examples. For many among us the European model is the most inspiring. We have therefore seen in the preceding pages to what mortifying set-backs such an imitation has led us. European achievements, European techniques and the European style ought no longer to tempt us and to throw us off our balance.’[7]

The question is: will Africa continue to “imitate Europe” in the next 50 years? If so, such efforts will continue “to throw us off balance” as Fanon forewarned. Africa must find its own path to economic, political, social, cultural, psychological and ecological progress or a “modernity” that Africa defines.

JOSH MYERS argues, “To begin to conceptualize an African future is to stipulate that there must be unity—the only source of actual power and the guarantor of the security of African interests.” Similarly, MOTSOKO PHEKO contends, “Africa gained her political liberation through African Unity. Africa will not regain her economic liberation and social emancipation of her people without African Unity.” The late Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem also conceptualised the future of Africa based on unity when he wrote, “The collective African experiences is that we can only be ourselves and we need each other to counter the threat of marginalisation, rapacious globalization and the consolidation of whatever little gains may have been accomplished in a number of African countries. No one [African"> country can be a sustainable miracle if its neighbours are in hell.”[8]

In planning for Africa’s future, we must shy away from crystal ball gazing and recognise that imperialism plans decades ahead in think tanks and institutions such as “The Project for the New American Century.”[9] Imperialist nations also allocate significant financial resources to Research & Development, as CHRISTOPHER ZAMBAKARI observes in his piece. Whilst cognisance of future imperialist operations and reconfigurations, Africans must simultaneously address what are the external and internal constraints on Africa’s future development? According to the African Development Bank: “Many of the drivers of conflict in Africa are regional in nature and call for regional solutions.”[10] Other “drivers of conflict” that will undermine peace, stability, and development in all its facets are as THEOGENE RUDASWINGA argues , “Africa has a crisis of leadership. Many of Africa’s rulers have, by and large, betrayed African people for too long.”

ALEMAYEHU MARIAM wears both his political scientist’s hat alongside his lawyer’s hat and not only asks some critical questions about “where is Africa going in the next 50 years?,” but “Will Africa be the Promised Land for Africans in 2050 and beyond or remain a newer unkinder and un-gentler version of the “beggar continent” that it is today? Will there even be an Africa as we know it today in 2050 and beyond? Is it an exercise in futility to even venture to make predictions about Africa?” He provides some sobering reflections and answers to these questions.

In the article by HERBERT EKWE-EKWE he urges that “the pressing point to reiterate here is that the immediate emergency that threatens the very survival of African peoples is the “Berlin-state” encased in African existence coupled with the pathetic bunch that masquerades here and there as African leaderships but whose mission is to oversee this enthralling edifice.” Therefore, the colonially inherited borders of 1884-85 need to be thoroughly dismantled in any future conception of a united Africa. Added to this must be the dismantling of state-centric models of development that have for 50 years been led by a particular neo-colonial African elite on behalf of the “masses” and “citizens” whereby these citizens have been excluded, marginalised and development has been done to them and for them and rarely have ordinary people been in total control of their own development. This must be one of the challenges for Africa in the next 50 years – that is, that ordinary people are wholly involved in the total development (i.e. political, cultural, social, economic, technological, ecological development) of their communities and societies.

TERRORISM AND POVERTY MAKE DISTURBING FUTURE BEDFELLOWS

Neo-colonial African leaders are complicit with their former colonial masters. They have invited former masters to militarily assist them deal with insurgents, whether those insurgents and conflicts are in Mali, CAR, Nigeria or whether they allow foreign interests to establish bases on African soil, such as in Djibouti. In places such as Nigeria, Somalia, Algeria, Kenya and CAR, there is a grievous threat of terrorism that undermines the future of Africa’s development in the next 50 years by threatening to create future terrorists from young African men denied jobs and access to basic infrastructure that the African state has failed to provide for the masses of people. To put it differently, the regional inequalities and endemic poverty that underlines the conflicts in Mali, CAR, Somalia and Nigeria belie a narrative that Africa is rising. Even the giant in Africa – Nigeria – that has recently had its economy rebased to surpass that of South Africa – fails to provide uninterrupted electricity to the majority of its people. It fails to provide jobs to the masses of its unemployed and when it offered fewer than 5000 jobs to tens of thousands of young Nigerians, 7 were killed in March this year during the stampede to secure such jobs.[11] It cannot account for the $20 billion of oil money that has gone missing from the Central Bank of Nigeria.[12] The giant cannot secure the lives of up to 300 abducted girls who have been missing since 14 April 2014, nor ensure the oil wealth of the country is equitably shared by the people of the Niger Delta region from whence it lies. The other much touted economy on the continent is South Africa where it competes with Nigeria for being a most deeply unequal society whilst its leader, the “shower-man”[13] i.e. Jacob Zuma, fails to find it morally reprehensible that a recent investigation into his Nkandla homestead by the public prosecutor, Thuli Madonelsa, seriously questioned the proportion of public monies that went into building Zuma’s homestead. [14] According to The Mail & Guardian, “Madonelsa found [Zuma"> had improperly benefitted from a grand, excessive, opulent and obscene government ugrade to his homestead and should repay a ‘reasonable’ percentage of about R20-million worth of ugrades.”[15] The two year investigation concluded that the Nkandla upgrades went beyond what was required for the security of the president; that Zuma’s family and relatives improperly benefited from state spending on Nkandla; that there was maladministration in the Nkandla project and that the money used for the entire project could have been used to directly benefit the wider Nkandla community instead. Zuma’s “Nkandla-gate” is mirrored in the greed of African leaders during the last 50 years of African independence. This rapacity that jeopardises African governance and economic development must end in the next 50 years of Africa’s development.

If Africa is to harness its economic and technological potential for the benefit of the greatest number of its people, it requires new leaders genuinely committed to the principles of service, humility, transparency, accountability, and selflessness.

MANY OBSTACLES AND MOUNTAINS OF OPTIMISM

Among the many challenges Africa must confront in the next 50 years is to overturn its dependence on Western countries for trade. Neither should Africans make the mistake of replacing dependence on the West for dependence on the Chinese dragon. As MOTSOKO PHEKO writes, “There must be massive intra-trade among African countries. There must be a plan to process raw materials in Africa and export them as finished goods.”

There are many issues that Africa must address in the next 50 years. Yet, in the face of these myriad issues there is a substantial amount of hope and optimism in these articles. TAGREED ABDIN considers that things can only improve for Sudan in the next 50 years but in order for Sudan to heal “the current regime has got to go.” In asking young fellow Sudanese about the prospects for their country, she remarks that there is an “indomitable spirit of the Sudanese People.”

But we should not deceive ourselves that the next 50 years will not be arduous. It will continue to be challenged by imperialist and neo-colonial operations seeking to advance their own interests. For example, one of the many issues Africans will continue to address in the next 50 years will not only be the militarisation of the continent in the form of AFRICOM’s presence and the stationing of a military base in Camp Lemonier in Djibouti with over 2000 American troops, but curbing illicit financial flows.

Global Financial Integrity (GFI), a Washington DC based research and advocacy organisation, recently uncovered that, “The fraudulent misinvoicing of trade is hampering economic growth and potentially resulting in billions of US dollars in tax revenue in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda.”[16] In the report entitled “Hiding in Plain Sight” “trade misinvoicing” is defined as the deliberate depreciation of the value, quantity, or composition of goods on custom forms or invoices for the calculated purposes of evading taxes or laundering money.[17] According to the report, “Between 2002 and 2011, US$60.8 billion moved illegally into or out of Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda using trade misinvoicing.”[18] Complicit in these tax evasions are both Africans and also the countries where the corporate profits are deposited into foreign accounts. Hence, in both misinvoicing and the siphoning of wealth by African leaders such as Mobutu of former Zaire, Abacha in Nigeria or Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea, to name but a few, it requires the facilitation of Western offshore banks and shell companies largely created by developed countries to facilitate such transactions. This grave haemorrhaging of the continent’s wealth must cease if Africa is to harness the totality of its economic wealth for the upliftment of the majority of its people, rather than an unscrupulous minority.

Similarly, another important aspect in the next 50 years is the important role to be played by Africans in the Diaspora in Africa’s development and in forging principled solidarity with African peoples and struggles on the continent. One of our regular contributors, AJAMU NANGWAYA offers “propositions that ought to be executed to advance an anti-imperialist, Pan-Afrikan solidarity programme of action with Afrika and its peoples” which are imperative in the next 50 years.

Integral to the upliftment of Africa in the decades ahead must be the upliftment of girls and women and against deep-seated homophobic attitudes.[19] It is positive that in Chiapata, eastern Zambia, where 40 percent of girls are married before they read the age of 18, traditional leaders have been critical in the efforts to eradicate this customary practice by encouraging girls to stay on at school. At the root of this problem is poverty, as many families cannot afford school fees.[20]

Africa’s future lies in the potential of its entire population, half of which are females. In the next 50 years, an aspiration must be that the current three female heads of state – Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf of Liberia, Joyce Banda of Malawi and Catherine Samba Panza of the Central African Republic, who exist out of the current 54 African nations, should dramatically increase. However, it is necessary to also question whether the ideological orientation of future African leaders, be they female or male, will be different from their predecessors? To put it differently, if future female heads of state remain committed to neoliberalism and patriarchal values of competition, war, conflict, superiority, force, aggression - it is necessary to ask how much will have changed in the society and continent?

THE MAMA MBOGAS OF 50 YEARS TIME

As Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem pointed out, “The majority of Africans continue to survive not because of governments but in spite of governments.” They are the millions of individuals such as the “mama mbogas” of many African towns and villages, selling vegetables from their trays or other goods on their heads or their backs. In the last Pan-African postcard that Abdul-Raheem wrote for Pambazuka News entitled “City beautification is destroying livelihoods,”[21] he wrote:

“Government policy is threatening the survival of mama mbogas across this continent. In the name of ridding cities of illegal constructions, returning to the original city plans and ‘beautifying’ our urban spaces, city councils and governments at all levels are creating more poverty, ruining lifelong savings accumulated through extreme sacrifice and hard work. Of what use is a ‘beautiful city’ peopled by citizens who have lost their livelihoods? Would they appreciate the beauty?”[22]

In 50 years’ time, we need to revisit these questions and the extent to which the mama mbogas will continue struggling for their aspirations to own a kiosk to sell more goods and remove themselves further away from poverty.

*Ama Biney (Dr) is a scholar-activist and Acting Editor of Pambazuka News

* THE VIEWS OF THE ABOVE ARTICLE ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR/S AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE PAMBAZUKA NEWS EDITORIAL TEAM
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ENDNOTES:
[1] See ‘About Agenda 2063’ in http://agenda2063.au.int/en/about Accessed 26 May 2014.
[2] See ‘African Union Agenda 20163 A Shared Strategic Framework for Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Development Background Notes’ August 2013, http://tinyurl.com/lqow3qe Accessed 26 May 2014.
[3] Ibid, p. 8.
[4] Ibid, p. 5.
[5] Ibid, p. 6.
[6] Ibid, p. 6.
[7] See ‘The Wretched of the Earth’ by Frantz Fanon, Penguin Edition, 1961, pp. 251-252.
[8] Cited in ‘The African Union’ by T. Murithi, Ashgate, 2005, pp.8-9.
[9] See “The Project for the New American Century” in Wikipedia: http://tinyurl.com/k94ozy6 Accessed 26 May 2014.
[10] See ‘The Africa We Want: “The Next 50 Years” in http://tinyurl.com/ogve8ba Accessed 28 May 2014.
[11] See ‘Nigeria Stampede: Minister Abba Moro will not resign’, BBC News 17 March 2014, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-26611470 Accessed 26 May 2014.
[12] See ‘Nigeria issues probe into “missing $20bn of oil money’ in BBC News, 12 March 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-26553388 Accessed 26 May 2014.
[13] In 2006 Zuma had sex with a woman who he knew to be HIV positive and said that he had a shower after unprotected sexual intercourse to rid himself of the chances of contracting HIV/Aids. Therefore, in some quarters he is aptly derided “the shower man.”
[14] See ‘Madonesla exposes rot at heart of Nkandla’ in The Mail and Guardian, 20 March 2014, http://tinyurl.com/lhl625 Accessed 27 May 2014.
[15] Ibid.
[16] See ‘African Countries Lose Billions through Misinvoiced trade’ in http://tinyurl.com/lf9qw65 Accessed 28 May 2014.
[17] Cited in ‘Hiding in Plain Sight: Trade Misinvoicing and the Impact of Revenue Loss in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda: 2002-2011’ by Raymond Baker, Christine Clough, Dev Kar, Brian LeBlanc, Joshua Simmons, May 12, 2014. See http://tinyurl.com/mfxdha5 Accessed 28 May 2014.
[18] Ibid.
[19] See the Pambazuka special issue entitled: “The Struggles for homosexual rights” http://www.pambazuka.org/en/issue/667
[20 See ‘Zambia tribe leaders challenge child marriage’ in http://tinyurl.com/ln5wlhr Accessed 30 May 2014.
[21] See http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/Tajudeen/56537 Accessed 27 May 2014.
[22] Ibid.