Features

March - Zimbabwe's month of destiny

Mary Ndlovu, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

2002-02-28, Issue 55

http://pambazuka.org/en/category/features/6216

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March is Zimbabwe's month of destiny. A generation ago, in March 1980, we held our breath to see who would take the prize - the right to lead Zimbabweans into the future, and build a new independent nation. We knew that the war was over, Independence was around the corner and one or other of the nationalist parties would certainly be in power in April.

Now we face another March election which will determine our future for another generation. But there is no certainty, there is palpable fear. This election takes place when ZANU PF and Mugabe have ruled for 22 years. During the last two years they have watched their popularity wane as a result of failed economic polices and massive corruption. They have jumped around like a hare in the headlights trying desperately to save themselves, and the results have been catastrophic - the halving of commerical agricultural production, the crippling of much of our manufacturing sector, collapse of public education and health services and the exodus of both the professional and non-professional labour force in search of incomes that sustain their families. All of this is accompanied by state-sponsored violence which seeks to force on the population a result which they do not want - another six years of ZANU PF.

The effects are clear - inflation of 117%, unemployment approaching 70%, replacement of highly productive commercial agriculture with small scale and subsistence farming, deep poverty, deep frustration by a relatively highly educated population. And then nature - or God, or the ancestors, depending on your belief system - intervenes to provide a devastating drought which is already causing acute hunger, leading to open starvation.

In the midst of this chaos and suffering the Presidential election offers us a chance to start again, to abandon the path of destruction down which we have strayed. Can anyone imagine that a people as sophisticated as Zimbabweans are could vote for the same people who brought them into this terrible situation? No one believes that the majority of Zimbabweans will vote for President Mugabe. Opinion polls confirm what we all see with our eyes, hear with our ears and feel with our hearts. Recent violence has alienated what little support ZANU PF retained; they are left with their patronage clients who can desert them only at their own personal peril. Zimbabweans will not vote in large numbers for Mugabe.

If Mugabe can accept that fact, admit defeat and hand over power, then we have a chance - a chance to rebuild our country, to redistribute our land resources rationally, recreate our industry and perhaps the prerequisite for all of these, develop a democratic political environment. We can be the strength of the region, drawing investment, drawing tourists, drawing back our own population who have fled from economic insecurity. It will not be smooth sailing; it will be a struggle, but we will have another chance, and will have support from the international community to help us get started. The whole region will benefit from the rejuvenated economy.

Sadly, this scenario appears less and less realistic. In February two years ago, in the face of a defeat at the referendum on the constitution, Mugabe made a brave speech accepting the will of the people. But within days he launched his violent land reform and instituted measures which had been directly rejected by the voters.

What if Mugabe refuses to give up this time? He could do it by announcing a win for ZANU PF. Or he might accept that MDC had won the election, and then concoct a situation which would give him some kind of excuse not to hand over power. He has already told SADC he will accept any result except recolonisation, which is his euphemism for an MDC victory. Many Zimbabweans are not aware of the constitutional provision that although the election results will be announced on March 11, the new President only takes power on April 1. Three weeks to play deadly games.

Zimabweans will not believe any announcement that Mugabe has won. But will they react? This can not be known. And how would they react to an announcement of an MDC victory followed by a manipulation through the arrest or even assassination of Tsvangirai, the declaration of an emergency, an army intervention or any of the other possible tricks which regimes with their backs to the wall can dream up? Again, we simply don't know. But we can be sure that either of these situations will bring disaster to Zimbabwe,
and depression, perhaps worse to the region.

If Mugabe "steals the election" in whatever way, we can be sure that the international community beyond Africa will deepen their boycott. We will be more isolated. Even if Mugabe abandons some of his extremist policies in the hope of placating the west and luring back aid, it is unlikely that he will get the desired response. It is more likely that he will complete his land reform, as he puts it, we will be isolated, opposition will be brutally suppressed (he has already said he will ban the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions), thousands will flow out of the country. Our agriculture will remain largely at the subsistence level, manufacturing will not recover, and of immediate concern, where will we get food to eat in the middle of a drought?

Mugabe may then rely on the friendship of Libya to keep fuel flowing and even to bolster his security, but at a price - land and other economic assets in Zimbabwe, some of which have already been handed over. There is little evidence that Libya is a better coloniser than Britain or any other European power, and much evidence of serious mischief in other African countries in trouble.

If there is resistance, whether on a mass scale as in Madagascar, or sporadic, which is more likely, much blood will be spilled, and suffering ensue. In any case there is likely to be mass movement of people across the borders, either fleeing violence, or seeking food.

Much emphasis has been placed on the role of international observers, and especially those of SADC and South Africa. If it is clear that Mugabe has stolen the election, will South Africa go along with the pretense, gambling as they have done so far, that somehow things will go back to "normal" and they won't have to deal with it? A recent statement by Thabo that 1,000 dead in South Africa in 1994 did not mean that their election was not free and fair is not very promising. Or will they refuse to accept the result? And what then? A military intervention? Close the borders? Or simply denounce verbally and do nothing? The tunnel is dark and the light is not seen.

We do not want Mugabe removed by foreign troops, or by our own troops. We want him removed by the ballot. That is the only way that Zimbabwe can have a decent future. But two weeks before the poll date, the signals are that Mugabe will not allow that to happen. In that case, we do not hope for rescue from our fate by anyone, in or outside of Africa. At best we see a period of oppression, further economic decay, poverty and starvation. At worst we see bloody conflict, acute suffering, and death. Another failed state in Africa - brought about by the stubborn greed and ambition of one man and those parasites who surround him. And if we wish to take lessons from the experience of the past decade - failed states lead to failed regions, full of conflict, hate, fear and endless suffering.

We hope that Southern Africa can be spared from this fate. Perhaps a March miracle will occur. Perhaps we are near the end of the tunnel after all.

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